Most likely champion

FC Barcelona

Top 4 race

7clubs still live

Most likely relegated

Málaga

Spread

23pts typical

#	Team	Title	UCL	UEL	UECL	Rel	Proj. Pts	Range
1	BarcelonaBAR	81%	100%	<1%	<1%	-	85.6	74–96
2	Real MadridRMA	16%	99%	<1%	<1%	-	76.5	65–88
3	AtléticoATM	3%	91%	4%	2%	-	69.0	58–80
4	BetisBET	<1%	76%	10%	6%	<1%	64.8	53–76
5	AthleticATH	<1%	38%	16%	12%	<1%	57.5	46–69
6	VillarrealVIL	<1%	34%	16%	13%	<1%	56.7	45–68
7	Real SociedadRSO	<1%	20%	13%	13%	1%	54.6	43–66
8	SevillaSEV	<1%	9%	8%	10%	4%	50.9	40–62
9	RayoRAY	<1%	8%	7%	8%	5%	49.8	38–62
10	DeportivoCOR	<1%	8%	7%	8%	6%	49.4	38–62
11	AlavésALA	-	5%	6%	7%	7%	48.3	37–60
12	RacingRAC	<1%	3%	3%	4%	18%	45.4	34–58
13	OsasunaOSA	-	2%	2%	3%	19%	44.7	34–56
14	EspanyolESY	-	2%	2%	3%	19%	44.2	33–55
15	LevanteLVT	-	1%	2%	3%	23%	43.4	32–55
16	CeltaCEL	-	1%	2%	2%	23%	43.2	33–54
17	ValenciaVAL	-	<1%	1%	2%	27%	42.7	32–54
18	GetafeGET	-	<1%	<1%	1%	32%	41.8	31–53
19	ElcheELC	-	<1%	<1%	2%	31%	41.8	31–53
20	MálagaMLA	-	<1%	<1%	<1%	84%	31.5	20–43

Updated Sun 8 Nov, 23:11

Bars show how often each club finished in each outcome across 100,000 simulated seasons. How it works · Transfers that shaped this table

Position probability heatmap

Cells are percentages; blanks are under 0.5%. Teams are sorted by expected points.