Expected Threat
Expected threat measures how much a player's passes and carries move the ball into more dangerous areas of the pitch.
Why it matters. It captures the deep creativity expected assists misses: the pass before the assist, and the carry that breaks a line and changes the shape of an attack.
Figures built on licensed professional event data. Where the data comes from. Reviewed . Example figures, when shown, carry their own season and data date.
How the pitch gets valued
Split the pitch into a grid, and give every zone a single number: the probability that a possession there produces a goal within the next few actions. The grid used here has 192 zones, 16 along the pitch and 12 across, and its values look roughly like this:
- Own box: close to zero
- Halfway line: low but rising
- Edge of the opposition box: high
- Central, six yards out: highest on the pitch
Expected threat is the change in that number caused by one action.
- A pass from the centre circle to the edge of the box jumps from a low value zone to a high one, so it scores well.
- A five-yard pass between two centre backs barely changes the zone, so it scores close to zero.
- A pass or carry that retreats the ball, backwards or sideways into a safer area, scores zero here. The original method subtracts value for that move; this site floors it at zero, so xT only rewards progression and never marks down a cautious pass.
It does not matter how many touches it took or how good the pass looked on television. It only matters whether the ball ended up somewhere more dangerous than where it started, and by how much.
One pass, scored on this grid
A completed pass from the centre of the pitch to the edge of the opposition box, both central, starts in a zone worth 0.009 and ends in one worth 0.085. The difference is 0.076, so that is the xT of the pass on this site.
Those two zone values come from the 192-cell grid used here, not from a made-up illustration. A backward pass along the same line would be worth zero here, because this site floors at zero. The original method would subtract 0.076.
xT on the players table is a Pro column, so a free ranking of it is not a page this lesson can open. The useful next look is who carries the ball forward, or a creator pair such as Szoboszlai v Cherki.
The same total, two different jobs
Two players can post the same xT number while doing completely different jobs.
- The passer. A deep midfielder who repeatedly finds a team mate between the lines. Each pass is a modest step towards goal, but there are a lot of them.
- The carrier. A wide forward who receives the ball short and drives thirty yards before laying it off. Almost no passing value, but one big number from the run itself.
Added together, both players look identical. Split by action type, and you see exactly who is doing what.
Compare it against expected assists to sharpen the picture. A winger with high xA and modest xT finishes moves: they deliver the last ball once play has already reached a dangerous area. A midfielder with modest xA but high xT starts them: their pass out of a crowded midfield created the space in the first place. Neither is the better player. xT is what tells them apart when the assist column cannot.
Read it over five or six matches, not one. A single thirty-yard carry that never leads to a shot can inflate a one-match total on its own.
Where the number changes the conversation
Judging a midfield. A team can dominate territory through one player's passing, lose the match, and have nothing to show for it on the stat sheet. A pass completion percentage says nothing about danger. Expected threat says that player was doing the damage even though the finishing let them down.
Comparing two similar creators. Splitting xT into passing and carrying answers what a combined number cannot: not just who created more danger, but how. That answers whether their method suits the team they would be joining.
Watching the match itself. Commentary reacts to the shot and the cross. Expected threat gives a name to the pass three actions earlier that made both of them possible.
The misreadings, and why they miss
"It is just a fancier progressive pass count." A progressive count treats every forward pass the same. Expected threat weighs where the ball actually ends up. Two passes that both technically progress the ball by the same distance can be worth very different amounts.
"It replaces expected assists." It complements it. Expected assists stops at the final pass before a shot. Expected threat measures every pass and carry that moves the ball, shot or no shot. That is why the two together tell a fuller story than either alone.
"A high total always means good decision making." Usually, yes. But a team facing a disorganised, deep-sitting defence generates more of it than the same team against a well-drilled opponent. Read it against the opposition, not on its own.
Most expected threat
Example: 2026/27, after 5 matches
- 1R. Giles2.04
- 2B. Mbeumo1.90
- 3C. Palmer1.79
- 4C. Gakpo1.77
- 5Bruno Fernandes1.69
- 6A. Semenyo1.64
- 7K. Dewsbury-Hall1.58
- 8M. Rashford1.54
- 9D. Rice1.53
- 10N. Williams1.48
FAQ
Expected assists only credit the final pass into a shot. Expected threat credits every action that improves the ball's position, so a midfielder who rarely registers assists can still rank very highly.
Yes. It is reported separately for passes and for carries, which distinguishes a player who progresses play by finding a pass from one who does it by running with the ball.
Not in the figures on this site. A pass or carry that retreats the ball, such as a centre back recycling possession backwards, scores zero, so the total only rewards progression. The original method takes the end zone's value minus the start zone's, so a backward pass loses value there. Flooring at zero means xT here shows how far a player moves the ball forward, not what their backward passes give up.
No. A progressive pass count treats every line broken as equal. Expected threat weighs the destination, so a pass that ends just outside the box is worth far more than one that ends on the opposite touchline, even if both technically move the ball forward.
Volume plus positioning. They touch the ball more often in build up, and when they release it into the right zone, that single pass can carry more value than several short passes further forward.
Where the method comes from
Related terms
See xT across the Premier League
Every player, team and match measured on the chances created rather than the scoreline.