Burnley vs Arsenal Preview: What the xG Data Says

Burnley

0-50.28-2.84

Arsenal

Ødegaard 4'
Saka (P) 40'
Saka 46'
Trossard 65'
Havertz 77'

Ødegaard 4'
Saka (P) 40'
Saka 46'
Trossard 65'
Havertz 77'

Premier League 2023/2024

GW25

17 Feb 15:00

J. Gillett

This match has been played.

See full analysis

Pre-Match Signals

ARS concede just 0.5 xGA per match vs BUR's 2.0. That gap should show in chance quality

FavoursARSSubscribers see the evidence behind this

ARS win 60% on the road while BUR manage just 10% at home, undermining any home edge

FavoursARSSubscribers see the evidence behind this

ARS's clean sheet rate of 67% meets an attack generating just 0.6 xG per match

FavoursARSSubscribers see the evidence behind this

Burnley

Last 10 home games1W · 3D · 6L · 10% wins

Struggling at home

0.9 goals per game (xG expected: 1.0)

On track

1.7 conceded per game (xGA expected: 1.8)

On track

Arsenal

Last 10 away games6W · 3D · 1L · 60% wins

Solid form

1.7 goals per game (xG expected: 1.8)

On track

0.8 conceded per game (xGA expected: 0.8)

On track

Player
Saka ARS	0.77	0.36	2.99	98
Eze ARS	0.56	0.31	3.10	89
Jesus ARS	0.56	0.40	2.66	75

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Tactical Analysis

How these teams play and where the match could be decided

Possession-based ↔ Direct

Low Block ↔ High Press

Conservative ↔ Risk-taking

Central Play ↔ Wide Play

Scrappy ↔ Technical

Light ↔ Physically Dominant

Sit Off ↔ Counter-Press

Low Intensity ↔ High Intensity

Burnley

Arsenal

Possession-based ↔ Direct

Low Block ↔ High Press

Conservative ↔ Risk-taking

Central Play ↔ Wide Play

Least vulnerable Average Most vulnerable

BUR(38 matches)

Σ GI

CAM

CDM

3.29

0.794th

0.392nd

0.791st

0.294th

0.326th

0.242nd

0.167th

0.214th

0.1112th

ARS(38 matches)

Σ GI

CAM

CDM

1.21

0.3218th

0.1118th

0.1318th

0.1315th

0.1317th

0.1313th

0.1114th

0.0817th

0.0816th

GI = Goals + Assists / matchxG = Expected Goals / matchxT = Expected Threat / match

Did the defensive gap show in chance quality?

Did ARS's travel form hold up?

Did the clean sheet prediction hold?

Come back after the final whistle.

Scrappy ↔ Technical

Light ↔ Physically Dominant

Sit Off ↔ Counter-Press

Low Intensity ↔ High Intensity

Player
Saka ARS	0.77	0.36	2.99	98
Eze ARS	0.56	0.31	3.10	89
Jesus ARS	0.56	0.40	2.66	75

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BurnleyBurnley
0-5
ArsenalArsenal

Pre-Match Signals

Venue Form

Players who decide this

ARS

ARS

ARS

Tactical Analysis

Style and key characteristics

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Attacking Zones

Position vs Expected Position

Form & Head-to-head

Style and key characteristics

Positional Vulnerabilities

Questions for after full-time

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Players who decide this

ARS

ARS

ARS

Pre-Match Signals

Venue Form

Players who decide this

ARS

ARS

ARS

Tactical Analysis

Style and key characteristics

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Attacking Zones

Style and key characteristics

Positional Vulnerabilities

Questions for after full-time

Arsenal formDDLWW

Head-to-head · last 5

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Players who decide this

ARS

ARS

ARS