Burnley vs Brentford Preview: What the xG Data Says

This match has been played.

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Pre-Match Signals

BRE concede disproportionate xG through their left side, exactly where BUR focus their attacks

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Combined xG profiles point to 3.2+ goals. Expect early action rather than a cagey start

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A stark contrast in approach: BRE skip the midfield while BUR control tempo, creating a pattern clash

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Burnley

Last 10 home games1W · 3D · 6L · 10% wins

Struggling at home

0.9 goals per game (xG expected: 1.0)

On track

1.7 conceded per game (xGA expected: 1.8)

On track

Brentford

Last 10 away games5W · 0D · 5L · 50% wins

Solid form (solid defence)

1.3 goals per game (xG expected: 1.4)

On track

1.4 conceded per game (xGA expected: 1.7)

Above expected

Player
Lewis-Potter BRE	0.58	0.54	2.29	76
Ward-Prowse BUR	0.40	0.13	1.18	52
B. Larsen BUR	0.46	0.31	2.57	68

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Tactical Analysis

How these teams play and where the match could be decided

Possession-based ↔ Direct

Low Block ↔ High Press

Conservative ↔ Risk-taking

Central Play ↔ Wide Play

Scrappy ↔ Technical

Light ↔ Physically Dominant

Sit Off ↔ Counter-Press

Low Intensity ↔ High Intensity

Burnley

Brentford

Least vulnerable Average Most vulnerable

BUR(38 matches)

Σ GI

CAM

CDM

3.29

0.794th

0.392nd

0.791st

0.294th

0.326th

0.242nd

0.167th

0.214th

0.1112th

BRE(38 matches)

Σ GI

CAM

CDM

2.87

0.766th

0.376th

0.426th

0.1610th

0.325th

0.138th

0.241st

0.261st

0.211st

GI = Goals + Assists / matchxG = Expected Goals / matchxT = Expected Threat / match

Pre-Match Signals

Venue Form

Players who decide this

BRE

BUR

BUR

Tactical Analysis

Style and key characteristics

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Attacking Zones

Positional Vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Form & Head-to-head

Style and key characteristics

Questions for after full-time

BurnleyBurnley
2-1
BrentfordBrentford
Larsen (P) 9'
Fofana 61'

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Players who decide this

BRE

BUR

BUR

Pre-Match Signals

Venue Form

Players who decide this

BRE

BUR

BUR

Tactical Analysis

Style and key characteristics

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Attacking Zones

Positional Vulnerabilities

Style and key characteristics

Questions for after full-time

Brentford formWLLWW

Head-to-head · last 5

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Players who decide this

BRE

BUR

BUR