Chelsea vs Arsenal Preview: What the xG Data Says

This match has been played.

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Pre-Match Signals

ARS concede just 0.5 xGA per match vs CHE's 1.7. That gap should show in chance quality

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Three straight wins and the underlying data supports the run, not just results

FavoursCHESubscribers see the evidence behind this

Combined xG profiles point to 3.1+ goals. Expect early action rather than a cagey start

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Chelsea

Last 10 home games5W · 2D · 3L · 50% wins

Solid form (solid defence)

1.8 goals per game (xG expected: 1.9)

On track

1.3 conceded per game (xGA expected: 1.6)

Above expected

Arsenal

Last 10 away games6W · 3D · 1L · 60% wins

Solid form

1.7 goals per game (xG expected: 1.8)

On track

0.8 conceded per game (xGA expected: 0.8)

On track

Player
Saka ARS	0.77	0.36	2.99	79
Palmer CHE	0.79	0.30	3.20	17
Pedro CHE	0.70	0.40	2.75	-

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Tactical Analysis

How these teams play and where the match could be decided

Possession-based ↔ Direct

Low Block ↔ High Press

Conservative ↔ Risk-taking

Central Play ↔ Wide Play

Scrappy ↔ Technical

Light ↔ Physically Dominant

Sit Off ↔ Counter-Press

Low Intensity ↔ High Intensity

Chelsea

Arsenal

Least vulnerable Average Most vulnerable

CHE(38 matches)

Σ GI

CAM

CDM

2.42

0.6111th

0.3410th

0.3411th

0.189th

0.423rd

0.1312th

0.0816th

0.1610th

0.167th

ARS(38 matches)

Σ GI

CAM

CDM

1.21

0.3218th

0.1118th

0.1318th

0.1315th

0.1317th

0.1313th

0.1114th

0.0817th

0.0816th

GI = Goals + Assists / matchxG = Expected Goals / matchxT = Expected Threat / match

Did the defensive gap show in chance quality?

Did the momentum carry through, or was the streak broken?

Was the game as open as the xG profiles suggested?

Come back after the final whistle.

ChelseaChelsea
2-2
ArsenalArsenal
Palmer (P) 14'
Mudryk 47'

Pre-Match Signals

Venue Form

Players who decide this

ARS

CHE

CHE

Tactical Analysis

Style and key characteristics

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Attacking Zones

Positional Vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Form & Head-to-head

Style and key characteristics

Questions for after full-time

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Players who decide this

ARS

CHE

CHE

Pre-Match Signals

Venue Form

Players who decide this

ARS

CHE

CHE

Tactical Analysis

Style and key characteristics

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Attacking Zones

Positional Vulnerabilities

Style and key characteristics

Questions for after full-time

Arsenal formDDLWW

Head-to-head · last 5

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Players who decide this

ARS

CHE

CHE