Chelsea vs Newcastle Utd Preview: What the xG Data Says

This match has been played.

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Pre-Match Signals

Combined xG profiles point to 3.9+ goals. Expect early action rather than a cagey start

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Three straight wins and the underlying data supports the run, not just results

FavoursCHESubscribers see the evidence behind this

A stark contrast in approach: NEW skip the midfield while CHE control tempo, creating a pattern clash

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Chelsea

Last 10 home games5W · 2D · 3L · 50% wins

Solid form (solid defence)

1.8 goals per game (xG expected: 1.9)

On track

1.3 conceded per game (xGA expected: 1.6)

Above expected

Newcastle United

Last 9 away games2W · 1D · 6L · 22% wins

Struggling away (leaky at the back)

1.2 goals per game (xG expected: 1.2)

On track

1.8 conceded per game (xGA expected: 1.5)

Below expected

Player
Palmer CHE	0.79	0.30	3.20	98
Pedro CHE	0.70	0.41	2.75	91
Gordon NEW	0.49	0.29	2.17	88

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Tactical Analysis

How these teams play and where the match could be decided

Possession-based ↔ Direct

Low Block ↔ High Press

Conservative ↔ Risk-taking

Central Play ↔ Wide Play

Scrappy ↔ Technical

Light ↔ Physically Dominant

Sit Off ↔ Counter-Press

Low Intensity ↔ High Intensity

Chelsea

Newcastle United

Least vulnerable Average Most vulnerable

CHE(38 matches)

Σ GI

CAM

CDM

2.42

0.6111th

0.3410th

0.3411th

0.189th

0.423rd

0.1312th

0.0816th

0.1610th

0.167th

NEW(38 matches)

Σ GI

CAM

CDM

2.63

0.795th

0.378th

0.552nd

0.323rd

0.2910th

0.0018th

0.1113th

0.1115th

0.1114th

GI = Goals + Assists / matchxG = Expected Goals / matchxT = Expected Threat / match

Was the game as open as the xG profiles suggested?

Did the momentum carry through, or was the streak broken?

Which style came out on top, direct or possession?

Come back after the final whistle.

Pre-Match Signals

Venue Form

Players who decide this

CHE

CHE

NEW

Tactical Analysis

Style and key characteristics

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Attacking Zones

Position vs Expected Position

Form & Head-to-head

Style and key characteristics

Positional Vulnerabilities

Questions for after full-time

ChelseaChelsea
3-2
Newcastle UtdNewcastle
Jackson 5'
Palmer 56'
Mudryk

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Players who decide this

CHE

CHE

NEW

Pre-Match Signals

Venue Form

Players who decide this

CHE

CHE

NEW

Tactical Analysis

Style and key characteristics

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Attacking Zones

Style and key characteristics

Positional Vulnerabilities

Questions for after full-time

Newcastle United formWDLLL

Head-to-head · last 5

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Players who decide this

CHE

CHE

NEW