Crystal Palace vs West Ham Utd Preview: What the xG Data Says

C. Palace

5-23.22-1.06

West Ham

Olise 6'
Eze 15'
Palmieri (OG) 19'
Mateta 30'
Mateta 63'

Gregory 39'
Henderson (OG) 88'

Gregory 39'
Henderson (OG) 88'

Premier League 2023/2024

GW34

21 Apr 14:00

G. Scott

This match has been played.

See full analysis

Pre-Match Signals

They're creating more than they're finishing. If conversion regresses to the mean, expect more goals from CRY

FavoursCRYSubscribers see the evidence behind this

Combined xG profiles point to 3.2+ goals. Expect early action rather than a cagey start

Subscribers see the evidence behind this

Crystal Palace

Last 10 home games2W · 4D · 4L · 20% wins

Struggling at home (wasteful in front of goal)

1.0 goals per game (xG expected: 1.9)

Underperforming

1.4 conceded per game (xGA expected: 1.5)

On track

West Ham United

Last 11 away games2W · 4D · 5L · 18% wins

Struggling away (wasteful in front of goal)

1.1 goals per game (xG expected: 1.3)

Below expected

1.7 conceded per game (xGA expected: 2.3)

Outperforming

Player
Bowen WHU	0.51	0.36	2.13	63
Wilson WHU	0.80	0.63	2.86	-
Johnson CRY	0.53	0.33	1.75	-

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Tactical Analysis

How these teams play and where the match could be decided

Possession-based ↔ Direct

Low Block ↔ High Press

Conservative ↔ Risk-taking

Central Play ↔ Wide Play

Scrappy ↔ Technical

Light ↔ Physically Dominant

Sit Off ↔ Counter-Press

Low Intensity ↔ High Intensity

Crystal Palace

West Ham United

Possession-based ↔ Direct

Low Block ↔ High Press

Conservative ↔ Risk-taking

Central Play ↔ Wide Play

Least vulnerable Average Most vulnerable

CRY(38 matches)

Σ GI

CAM

CDM

2.50

0.5015th

0.395th

0.3710th

0.342nd

0.299th

0.166th

0.1111th

0.1312th

0.212nd

WHU(38 matches)

Σ GI

CAM

CDM

3.00

0.921st

0.393rd

0.504th

0.1612th

0.327th

0.261st

0.0815th

0.243rd

0.138th

GI = Goals + Assists / matchxG = Expected Goals / matchxT = Expected Threat / match

Did finishing regression show up, or did luck hold?

Was the game as open as the xG profiles suggested?

Come back after the final whistle.

Scrappy ↔ Technical

Light ↔ Physically Dominant

Sit Off ↔ Counter-Press

Low Intensity ↔ High Intensity

Player
Bowen WHU	0.51	0.36	2.13	63
Wilson WHU	0.80	0.63	2.86	-
Johnson CRY	0.53	0.33	1.75	-

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Crystal PalaceC. Palace
5-2
West Ham UtdWest Ham
Olise 6'
Eze 15'
Palmieri (OG)

Pre-Match Signals

Venue Form

Players who decide this

WHU

WHU

CRY

Tactical Analysis

Style and key characteristics

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Attacking Zones

Position vs Expected Position

Form & Head-to-head

Style and key characteristics

Positional Vulnerabilities

Questions for after full-time

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Players who decide this

WHU

WHU

CRY

Pre-Match Signals

Venue Form

Players who decide this

WHU

WHU

CRY

Tactical Analysis

Style and key characteristics

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Attacking Zones

Style and key characteristics

Positional Vulnerabilities

Questions for after full-time

West Ham United formLWWLW

Head-to-head · last 5

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Players who decide this

WHU

WHU

CRY