Newcastle Utd vs Chelsea Preview: What the xG Data Says

This match has been played.

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Pre-Match Signals

Combined xG profiles point to 3.9+ goals. Expect early action rather than a cagey start

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Three straight wins and the underlying data supports the run, not just results

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A stark contrast in approach: NEW skip the midfield while CHE control tempo, creating a pattern clash

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Newcastle United

Last 11 home games6W · 2D · 3L · 55% wins

Solid form (wasteful in front of goal)

1.9 goals per game (xG expected: 2.3)

Below expected

1.5 conceded per game (xGA expected: 1.5)

On track

Chelsea

Last 10 away games5W · 3D · 2L · 50% wins

Solid form (wasteful in front of goal)

1.7 goals per game (xG expected: 1.9)

Below expected

1.0 conceded per game (xGA expected: 1.6)

Outperforming

Player
Palmer CHE	0.79	0.30	3.20	98
Pedro CHE	0.70	0.41	2.75	91
Gordon NEW	0.49	0.29	2.17	88

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Tactical Analysis

How these teams play and where the match could be decided

Possession-based ↔ Direct

Low Block ↔ High Press

Conservative ↔ Risk-taking

Central Play ↔ Wide Play

Scrappy ↔ Technical

Light ↔ Physically Dominant

Sit Off ↔ Counter-Press

Low Intensity ↔ High Intensity

Newcastle United

Chelsea

Least vulnerable Average Most vulnerable

NEW(38 matches)

Σ GI

CAM

CDM

2.63

0.795th

0.378th

0.552nd

0.323rd

0.2910th

0.0018th

0.1113th

0.1115th

0.1114th

CHE(38 matches)

Σ GI

CAM

CDM

2.42

0.6111th

0.3410th

0.3411th

0.189th

0.423rd

0.1312th

0.0816th

0.1610th

0.167th

GI = Goals + Assists / matchxG = Expected Goals / matchxT = Expected Threat / match

Newcastle UtdNewcastle
4-1
ChelseaChelsea
Isak 12'
Lascelles 59'
Joelinton

Pre-Match Signals

Venue Form

Players who decide this

CHE

CHE

NEW

Tactical Analysis

Style and key characteristics

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Attacking Zones

Positional Vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Form & Head-to-head

Style and key characteristics

Questions for after full-time

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Players who decide this

CHE

CHE

NEW

Pre-Match Signals

Venue Form

Players who decide this

CHE

CHE

NEW

Tactical Analysis

Style and key characteristics

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Attacking Zones

Positional Vulnerabilities

Style and key characteristics

Questions for after full-time

Chelsea formLWWWW

Head-to-head · last 5

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Players who decide this

CHE

CHE

NEW