Newcastle Utd vs Manchester City Preview: What the xG Data Says

This match has been played.

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Pre-Match Signals

Combined xG profiles point to 3.5+ goals. Expect early action rather than a cagey start

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Three straight defeats will affect their approach. Expect a cautious opening from NEW

FavoursMCISubscribers see the evidence behind this

Goals are diverging from expected levels on both sides, suggesting regression could hit either team's attack

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Newcastle United

Last 11 home games6W · 2D · 3L · 55% wins

Solid form (wasteful in front of goal)

1.9 goals per game (xG expected: 2.3)

Below expected

1.5 conceded per game (xGA expected: 1.5)

On track

Manchester City

Last 10 away games5W · 2D · 3L · 50% wins

Solid form

1.6 goals per game (xG expected: 1.7)

On track

1.3 conceded per game (xGA expected: 1.3)

On track

Player
Haaland MCI	1.02	0.73	3.56	99
Foden MCI	0.50	0.32	2.97	80
Gordon NEW	0.49	0.29	2.17	88

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Tactical Analysis

How these teams play and where the match could be decided

Possession-based ↔ Direct

Low Block ↔ High Press

Conservative ↔ Risk-taking

Central Play ↔ Wide Play

Scrappy ↔ Technical

Light ↔ Physically Dominant

Sit Off ↔ Counter-Press

Low Intensity ↔ High Intensity

Newcastle United

Manchester City

Least vulnerable Average Most vulnerable

NEW(38 matches)

Σ GI

CAM

CDM

2.63

0.795th

0.378th

0.552nd

0.323rd

0.2910th

0.0018th

0.1113th

0.1115th

0.1114th

MCI(38 matches)

Σ GI

CAM

CDM

1.34

0.3917th

0.2613th

0.2117th

0.1314th

0.0818th

0.0516th

0.0318th

0.0518th

0.139th

GI = Goals + Assists / matchxG = Expected Goals / matchxT = Expected Threat / match

Was the game as open as the xG profiles suggested?

Did the struggling side show signs of recovery?

Did finishing regression show up, or did luck hold?

Come back after the final whistle.

Newcastle UtdNewcastle
2-3
Manchester CityMan City
Isak 34'
Gordon 36'

Pre-Match Signals

Venue Form

Players who decide this

MCI

MCI

NEW

Tactical Analysis

Style and key characteristics

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Attacking Zones

Position vs Expected Position

Form & Head-to-head

Style and key characteristics

Positional Vulnerabilities

Questions for after full-time

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Players who decide this

MCI

MCI

NEW

Pre-Match Signals

Venue Form

Players who decide this

MCI

MCI

NEW

Tactical Analysis

Style and key characteristics

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Attacking Zones

Style and key characteristics

Positional Vulnerabilities

Questions for after full-time

Manchester City formDLWDW

Head-to-head · last 5

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Players who decide this

MCI

MCI

NEW