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See full analysisCan Manchester City defy the xG gap? 2nd-placed Burnley (2.0 xG/match) host 19th-placed Manchester City (0.9 xG/match). Burnley sit on 61 points against 55 expected, suggesting some regression may be due. E. Haaland leads the combined threat with 23.1 xGI in 29 appearances for Burnley.
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MCI concede just 1.0 xGA per match vs BUR's 2.3. That gap should show in chance quality
FavoursMCISubscribers see the evidence behind thisMCI win 55% on the road while BUR manage just 0% at home, undermining any home edge
FavoursMCISubscribers see the evidence behind thisMCI's clean sheet rate of 50% meets an attack generating just 1.1 xG per match
FavoursMCISubscribers see the evidence behind this
BurnleyStruggling at home (wasteful in front of goal)
Manchester CitySolid form (wasteful in front of goal)
How these teams play and where the match could be decided
Burnley
Manchester CityBUR(17 matches)MCI(17 matches)See your squad's players in this match
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Burnley formIn-form players who could decide this match
J. Doku
WG
