How we score our calls
A call is a statement xG Stat makes before the evidence is in: Fades or Due on a player, Deserved, Lucky or Even on a match. Each one is checked against what happened next and marked held or missed on the page it was made on.
Why it matters. A number is finished when you read it. A call has a due date, and the record of whether it held is the only honest way to know whether the numbers under it are worth your time.
Figures from xG Stat’s own models, built on Wyscout event data. Updated .
A call is issued, then checked
Every call on this site has three parts: the words (Fades, Due, Deserved, Lucky, Even), the numbers it was made from, and a date by which it is checked. The words never change, the numbers are frozen when the call is made, and the check is written on the same page as the call. That is the whole idea. A stat cannot be wrong. A call can, and the record says how often it was.
Player calls: Fades and Due
A player's call is about one thing: goals against expected goals over the season so far.
- Fades. Goals are at least a goal ahead of xG. Finishing like that is usually a run, not a level, so expect the gap to close.
- Due. xG is at least a goal ahead of goals. The chances are there and the goals will usually follow.
- No call. Inside a goal either way. Most players sit here most of the time.
A call needs three matches behind it. Next to the call you will see the shot-volume trend, shots per 90 over the last three matches against the season, and the next fixture. Neither changes the call. They are there so you can judge it.
The check. A player call runs for the next three matches the player appears in. If the gap between goals and xG is smaller after those three than it was when the call was made, the call held. If the gap is the same or wider, it is missed. Under 90 minutes across the three matches and the call is void: not enough football to tell either way, so it is shown as a hollow circle and left out of the tally.
Why the third match and not the next one. One match is one shot's worth of noise. Three is short enough to be checked within a month and long enough for a gap of a goal to move. It is a window, not a prediction of the exact number, and the check is only whether the gap moved as called.
Match calls: Deserved, Lucky and Even
Before a match, the model gives each of the three results a chance. When one result clears 50%, that side is favoured and called, and the word beside it says whether expected points agree with the favourite. Deserved means the favoured side is also the side with the better expected points. Lucky means expected points favour the other side instead. Until a gameweek has completed there are no expected points to compare yet, so a favoured fixture reads Deserved and an unfavoured one reads Even by default. When no result clears 50%, the call is Even: no winner is named, and the footer separately shows what the league table says and what expected points say.
The check. A called result that happens is held, including an Even call when the match is drawn. An Even call also holds on a match that is not drawn, as long as the two sides finish close on expected goals, within 55 to 45 of each other. Anything else is missed. After the match the chip changes to describe the result itself: Deserved when the winner had at least half the xG, Lucky when they did not, Even for a draw.
The record
Each club and each player carries its own record: every call made about them this season, in order, with a tick for held, a cross for missed and a hollow circle for void. The tally counts held against held plus missed. It is not the competition-wide hit rate on the match preview, which is one number across every match; this is the ledger for the one team or player in front of you.
FAQ
Related terms
See Calls across the Premier League
Every player, team and match measured on the chances created rather than the scoreline.