Aston Villa vs Arsenal Preview: What the xG Data Says

This match has been played.

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Pre-Match Signals

ARS concede just 0.5 xGA per match vs AVL's 1.4. That gap should show in chance quality

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AVL concede disproportionate xG through their left side, exactly where ARS focus their attacks

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Goals are diverging from expected levels on both sides, suggesting regression could hit either team's attack

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Aston Villa

Last 10 home games8W · 0D · 2L · 80% wins

Strong at home (solid defence)

1.8 goals per game (xG expected: 1.9)

On track

0.7 conceded per game (xGA expected: 0.9)

Above expected

Arsenal

Last 10 away games6W · 3D · 1L · 60% wins

Solid form

1.7 goals per game (xG expected: 1.8)

On track

0.8 conceded per game (xGA expected: 0.8)

On track

Player
Watkins AVL	0.60	0.45	2.34	87
Saka ARS	0.77	0.36	2.99	98
Bailey AVL	0.58	0.23	1.80	85

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Tactical Analysis

How these teams play and where the match could be decided

Possession-based ↔ Direct

Low Block ↔ High Press

Conservative ↔ Risk-taking

Central Play ↔ Wide Play

Scrappy ↔ Technical

Light ↔ Physically Dominant

Sit Off ↔ Counter-Press

Low Intensity ↔ High Intensity

Aston Villa

Arsenal

Least vulnerable Average Most vulnerable

AVL(38 matches)

Σ GI

CAM

CDM

2.61

0.872nd

0.2414th

0.2915th

0.296th

0.1316th

0.183rd

0.242nd

0.188th

0.184th

ARS(38 matches)

Σ GI

CAM

CDM

1.21

0.3218th

0.1118th

0.1318th

0.1315th

0.1317th

0.1313th

0.1114th

0.0817th

0.0816th

GI = Goals + Assists / matchxG = Expected Goals / matchxT = Expected Threat / match

Aston VillaVilla
1-0
ArsenalArsenal
McGinn 6'

Pre-Match Signals

Venue Form

Players who decide this

AVL

ARS

AVL

Tactical Analysis

Style and key characteristics

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Attacking Zones

Positional Vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Form & Head-to-head

Style and key characteristics

Questions for after full-time

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Players who decide this

AVL

ARS

AVL

Pre-Match Signals

Venue Form

Players who decide this

AVL

ARS

AVL

Tactical Analysis

Style and key characteristics

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Attacking Zones

Positional Vulnerabilities

Style and key characteristics

Questions for after full-time

Arsenal formDDLWW

Head-to-head · last 5

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Players who decide this

AVL

ARS

AVL