Aston Villa vs Brighton Preview: What the xG Data Says

Villa

6-12.37-1.30

Brighton

Watkins 13'
Watkins 20'
Estupiñán (OG) 25'
Watkins 64'
Ramsey 84'
Luiz 96'

Fati 49'

Premier League 2023/2024

GW7

30 Sep 11:30

A. Madley

This match has been played.

See full analysis

Pre-Match Signals

AVL concede disproportionate xG through their left side, exactly where BRI focus their attacks

FavoursBRISubscribers see the evidence behind this

AVL win 80% at home while BRI win just 20% away. Venue form strongly favours the hosts

FavoursAVLSubscribers see the evidence behind this

Aston Villa

Last 10 home games8W · 0D · 2L · 80% wins

Strong at home (solid defence)

1.8 goals per game (xG expected: 1.9)

On track

0.7 conceded per game (xGA expected: 0.9)

Above expected

Brighton

Last 10 away games2W · 4D · 4L · 20% wins

Struggling away

1.3 goals per game (xG expected: 1.4)

On track

1.5 conceded per game (xGA expected: 1.6)

On track

Player
Watkins AVL	0.60	0.45	2.34	87
Bailey AVL	0.58	0.23	1.80	85
Elliott AVL	0.50	0.22	2.84	96

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Tactical Analysis

How these teams play and where the match could be decided

Possession-based ↔ Direct

Low Block ↔ High Press

Conservative ↔ Risk-taking

Central Play ↔ Wide Play

Scrappy ↔ Technical

Light ↔ Physically Dominant

Sit Off ↔ Counter-Press

Low Intensity ↔ High Intensity

Aston Villa

Brighton

Possession-based ↔ Direct

Low Block ↔ High Press

Conservative ↔ Risk-taking

Central Play ↔ Wide Play

Least vulnerable Average Most vulnerable

AVL(38 matches)

Σ GI

CAM

CDM

2.61

0.872nd

0.2414th

0.2915th

0.296th

0.1316th

0.183rd

0.242nd

0.188th

0.184th

BRI(38 matches)

Σ GI

CAM

CDM

2.42

0.6810th

0.377th

0.379th

0.1116th

0.2611th

0.139th

0.183rd

0.1311th

0.183rd

GI = Goals + Assists / matchxG = Expected Goals / matchxT = Expected Threat / match

Did the channel advantage actually produce chances?

Did home advantage prove decisive?

Come back after the final whistle.

Scrappy ↔ Technical

Light ↔ Physically Dominant

Sit Off ↔ Counter-Press

Low Intensity ↔ High Intensity

Player
Watkins AVL	0.60	0.45	2.34	87
Bailey AVL	0.58	0.23	1.80	85
Elliott AVL	0.50	0.22	2.84	96

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Aston VillaVilla
6-1
BrightonBrighton
Watkins 13'
Watkins 20'
Estupiñán (OG)

Pre-Match Signals

Venue Form

Players who decide this

AVL

AVL

AVL

Tactical Analysis

Style and key characteristics

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Attacking Zones

Position vs Expected Position

Form & Head-to-head

Style and key characteristics

Positional Vulnerabilities

Questions for after full-time

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Players who decide this

AVL

AVL

AVL

Pre-Match Signals

Venue Form

Players who decide this

AVL

AVL

AVL

Tactical Analysis

Style and key characteristics

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Attacking Zones

Style and key characteristics

Positional Vulnerabilities

Questions for after full-time

Brighton formDDLDL

Head-to-head · last 5

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Players who decide this

AVL

AVL

AVL