Aston Villa vs Burnley Preview: What the xG Data Says

This match has been played.

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Pre-Match Signals

AVL concede disproportionate xG through their left side, exactly where BUR focus their attacks

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AVL win 80% at home while BUR win just 10% away. Venue form strongly favours the hosts

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AVL concede just 1.4 xGA per match vs BUR's 2.0. That gap should show in chance quality

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Aston Villa

Last 10 home games8W · 0D · 2L · 80% wins

Strong at home (solid defence)

1.8 goals per game (xG expected: 1.9)

On track

0.7 conceded per game (xGA expected: 0.9)

Above expected

Burnley

Last 10 away games1W · 2D · 7L · 10% wins

Struggling away (clinical finishing)

1.1 goals per game (xG expected: 0.8)

Above expected

2.4 conceded per game (xGA expected: 2.1)

Below expected

Player
Watkins AVL	0.60	0.45	2.34	87
Bailey AVL	0.58	0.23	1.80	85
Elliott AVL	0.50	0.22	2.84	96

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Tactical Analysis

How these teams play and where the match could be decided

Possession-based ↔ Direct

Low Block ↔ High Press

Conservative ↔ Risk-taking

Central Play ↔ Wide Play

Scrappy ↔ Technical

Light ↔ Physically Dominant

Sit Off ↔ Counter-Press

Low Intensity ↔ High Intensity

Aston Villa

Burnley

Least vulnerable Average Most vulnerable

AVL(38 matches)

Σ GI

CAM

CDM

2.61

0.872nd

0.2414th

0.2915th

0.296th

0.1316th

0.183rd

0.242nd

0.188th

0.184th

BUR(38 matches)

Σ GI

CAM

CDM

3.29

0.794th

0.392nd

0.791st

0.294th

0.326th

0.242nd

0.167th

0.214th

0.1112th

GI = Goals + Assists / matchxG = Expected Goals / matchxT = Expected Threat / match

Aston VillaVilla
3-2
BurnleyBurnley
Bailey 27'
Diaby 41'
Luiz (P)

Pre-Match Signals

Venue Form

Players who decide this

AVL

AVL

AVL

Tactical Analysis

Style and key characteristics

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Attacking Zones

Positional Vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Form & Head-to-head

Style and key characteristics

Questions for after full-time

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Players who decide this

AVL

AVL

AVL

Pre-Match Signals

Venue Form

Players who decide this

AVL

AVL

AVL

Tactical Analysis

Style and key characteristics

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Attacking Zones

Positional Vulnerabilities

Style and key characteristics

Questions for after full-time

Burnley formDDDLL

Head-to-head · last 5

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Players who decide this

AVL

AVL

AVL