Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace Preview: What the xG Data Says

This match has been played.

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Pre-Match Signals

AVL concede disproportionate xG through their left side, exactly where CRY focus their attacks

FavoursCRYSubscribers see the evidence behind this

Goals are diverging from expected levels on both sides, suggesting regression could hit either team's attack

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Combined xG profiles point to 3.1+ goals. Expect early action rather than a cagey start

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Aston Villa

Last 10 home games8W · 0D · 2L · 80% wins

Strong at home (solid defence)

1.8 goals per game (xG expected: 1.9)

On track

0.7 conceded per game (xGA expected: 0.9)

Above expected

Crystal Palace

Last 10 away games4W · 1D · 5L · 40% wins

Solid form (wasteful in front of goal)

1.0 goals per game (xG expected: 1.2)

Below expected

1.3 conceded per game (xGA expected: 1.6)

Above expected

Player
Watkins AVL	0.60	0.45	2.34	87
Johnson CRY	0.53	0.33	1.75	84
Bailey AVL	0.58	0.23	1.80	85

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Tactical Analysis

How these teams play and where the match could be decided

Possession-based ↔ Direct

Low Block ↔ High Press

Conservative ↔ Risk-taking

Central Play ↔ Wide Play

Scrappy ↔ Technical

Light ↔ Physically Dominant

Sit Off ↔ Counter-Press

Low Intensity ↔ High Intensity

Aston Villa

Crystal Palace

Least vulnerable Average Most vulnerable

AVL(38 matches)

Σ GI

CAM

CDM

2.61

0.872nd

0.2414th

0.2915th

0.296th

0.1316th

0.183rd

0.242nd

0.188th

0.184th

CRY(38 matches)

Σ GI

CAM

CDM

2.50

0.5015th

0.395th

0.3710th

0.342nd

0.299th

0.166th

0.1111th

0.1312th

0.212nd

GI = Goals + Assists / matchxG = Expected Goals / matchxT = Expected Threat / match

Aston VillaVilla
3-1
Crystal PalaceC. Palace
Durán 86'
Luiz (P) 97'
Bailey

Pre-Match Signals

Venue Form

Players who decide this

AVL

CRY

AVL

Tactical Analysis

Style and key characteristics

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Attacking Zones

Positional Vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Form & Head-to-head

Style and key characteristics

Questions for after full-time

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Players who decide this

AVL

CRY

AVL

Pre-Match Signals

Venue Form

Players who decide this

AVL

CRY

AVL

Tactical Analysis

Style and key characteristics

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Attacking Zones

Positional Vulnerabilities

Style and key characteristics

Questions for after full-time

Crystal Palace formDLLDW

Head-to-head · last 5

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Players who decide this

AVL

CRY

AVL