Aston Villa vs Liverpool Preview: What the xG Data Says

Villa

3-32.94-1.67

Liverpool

Tielemans 11'
Durán 84'
Durán 87'

Martínez (OG) 1'
Gakpo 22'
Quansah 47'

Martínez (OG) 1'
Gakpo 22'
Quansah 47'

Premier League 2023/2024

GW37

13 May 19:00

S. Hooper

This match has been played.

See full analysis

Pre-Match Signals

AVL concede disproportionate xG through their left side, exactly where LIV focus their attacks

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AVL win 80% at home while LIV win just 20% away. Venue form strongly favours the hosts

FavoursAVLSubscribers see the evidence behind this

Aston Villa

Last 10 home games8W · 0D · 2L · 80% wins

Strong at home (solid defence)

1.8 goals per game (xG expected: 1.9)

On track

0.7 conceded per game (xGA expected: 0.9)

Above expected

Liverpool

Last 10 away games2W · 3D · 5L · 20% wins

Struggling away (leaky at the back)

1.5 goals per game (xG expected: 1.4)

On track

1.9 conceded per game (xGA expected: 1.5)

Below expected

Player
Salah LIV	0.95	0.50	3.61	99
Watkins AVL	0.60	0.45	2.34	87
Isak LIV	0.68	0.45	2.58	97

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Tactical Analysis

How these teams play and where the match could be decided

Possession-based ↔ Direct

Low Block ↔ High Press

Conservative ↔ Risk-taking

Central Play ↔ Wide Play

Scrappy ↔ Technical

Light ↔ Physically Dominant

Sit Off ↔ Counter-Press

Low Intensity ↔ High Intensity

Aston Villa

Liverpool

Possession-based ↔ Direct

Low Block ↔ High Press

Conservative ↔ Risk-taking

Central Play ↔ Wide Play

Least vulnerable Average Most vulnerable

AVL(38 matches)

Σ GI

CAM

CDM

2.61

0.872nd

0.2414th

0.2915th

0.296th

0.1316th

0.183rd

0.242nd

0.188th

0.184th

LIV(38 matches)

Σ GI

CAM

CDM

1.66

0.4216th

0.2415th

0.2916th

0.0318th

0.1614th

0.0317th

0.169th

0.215th

0.1310th

GI = Goals + Assists / matchxG = Expected Goals / matchxT = Expected Threat / match

Did the channel advantage actually produce chances?

Did home advantage prove decisive?

Come back after the final whistle.

Scrappy ↔ Technical

Light ↔ Physically Dominant

Sit Off ↔ Counter-Press

Low Intensity ↔ High Intensity

Player
Salah LIV	0.95	0.50	3.61	99
Watkins AVL	0.60	0.45	2.34	87
Isak LIV	0.68	0.45	2.58	97

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Aston VillaVilla
3-3
LiverpoolLiverpool
Tielemans 11'
Durán 84'
Durán

Pre-Match Signals

Venue Form

Players who decide this

LIV

AVL

LIV

Tactical Analysis

Style and key characteristics

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Attacking Zones

Position vs Expected Position

Form & Head-to-head

Style and key characteristics

Positional Vulnerabilities

Questions for after full-time

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Players who decide this

LIV

AVL

LIV

Pre-Match Signals

Venue Form

Players who decide this

LIV

AVL

LIV

Tactical Analysis

Style and key characteristics

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Attacking Zones

Style and key characteristics

Positional Vulnerabilities

Questions for after full-time

Liverpool formDDLWL

Head-to-head · last 5

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Players who decide this

LIV

AVL

LIV