Brentford vs Nottingham Forest Preview: What the xG Data Says

This match has been played.

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Pre-Match Signals

BRE concede disproportionate xG through their left side, exactly where NFO focus their attacks

FavoursNFOSubscribers see the evidence behind this

Their recent conversion outpaces xG by 33%. If chance volume drops, the goals could dry up

FavoursBRESubscribers see the evidence behind this

Combined xG profiles point to 3.2+ goals. Expect early action rather than a cagey start

Subscribers see the evidence behind this

Brentford

Last 10 home games6W · 2D · 2L · 60% wins

Solid form (solid defence)

2.0 goals per game (xG expected: 1.9)

On track

1.0 conceded per game (xGA expected: 1.4)

Above expected

Nottingham Forest

Last 10 away games4W · 0D · 6L · 40% wins

Solid form (solid defence)

1.0 goals per game (xG expected: 0.9)

On track

1.5 conceded per game (xGA expected: 1.8)

Above expected

Player
Wood NFO	0.55	0.49	1.93	74
Lewis-Potter BRE	0.58	0.54	2.29	76
Awoniyi NFO	0.44	0.41	1.48	52

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Tactical Analysis

How these teams play and where the match could be decided

Possession-based ↔ Direct

Low Block ↔ High Press

Conservative ↔ Risk-taking

Central Play ↔ Wide Play

Scrappy ↔ Technical

Light ↔ Physically Dominant

Sit Off ↔ Counter-Press

Low Intensity ↔ High Intensity

Brentford

Nottingham Forest

Least vulnerable Average Most vulnerable

BRE(38 matches)

Σ GI

CAM

CDM

2.87

0.766th

0.376th

0.426th

0.1610th

0.325th

0.138th

0.241st

0.261st

0.211st

NFO(38 matches)

Σ GI

CAM

CDM

2.82

0.719th

0.349th

0.3212th

0.391st

0.531st

0.165th

0.0317th

0.186th

0.165th

GI = Goals + Assists / matchxG = Expected Goals / matchxT = Expected Threat / match

Did the channel advantage actually produce chances?

Did finishing regression show up, or did luck hold?

Was the game as open as the xG profiles suggested?

Come back after the final whistle.

BrentfordBrentford
3-2
Nottingham ForestForest
Toney 18'
Mee 57'
Maupay

Pre-Match Signals

Venue Form

Players who decide this

NFO

BRE

NFO

Tactical Analysis

Style and key characteristics

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Attacking Zones

Position vs Expected Position

Form & Head-to-head

Style and key characteristics

Positional Vulnerabilities

Questions for after full-time

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Players who decide this

NFO

BRE

NFO

Pre-Match Signals

Venue Form

Players who decide this

NFO

BRE

NFO

Tactical Analysis

Style and key characteristics

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Attacking Zones

Style and key characteristics

Positional Vulnerabilities

Questions for after full-time

Nottingham Forest formWDWDL

Head-to-head · last 5

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Players who decide this

NFO

BRE

NFO