Burnley vs Aston Villa Preview: What the xG Data Says

This match has been played.

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Pre-Match Signals

AVL concede disproportionate xG through their left side, exactly where BUR focus their attacks

FavoursBURSubscribers see the evidence behind this

AVL concede just 1.4 xGA per match vs BUR's 2.0. That gap should show in chance quality

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AVL win 60% on the road while BUR manage just 10% at home, undermining any home edge

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Burnley

Last 10 home games1W · 3D · 6L · 10% wins

Struggling at home

0.9 goals per game (xG expected: 1.0)

On track

1.7 conceded per game (xGA expected: 1.8)

On track

Aston Villa

Last 10 away games6W · 2D · 2L · 60% wins

Solid form (clinical finishing)

1.7 goals per game (xG expected: 1.3)

Above expected

1.5 conceded per game (xGA expected: 1.8)

Above expected

Player
Watkins AVL	0.60	0.45	2.34	87
Bailey AVL	0.58	0.23	1.80	85
Elliott AVL	0.50	0.22	2.84	96

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Tactical Analysis

How these teams play and where the match could be decided

Possession-based ↔ Direct

Low Block ↔ High Press

Conservative ↔ Risk-taking

Central Play ↔ Wide Play

Scrappy ↔ Technical

Light ↔ Physically Dominant

Sit Off ↔ Counter-Press

Low Intensity ↔ High Intensity

Burnley

Aston Villa

Least vulnerable Average Most vulnerable

BUR(38 matches)

Σ GI

CAM

CDM

3.29

0.794th

0.392nd

0.791st

0.294th

0.326th

0.242nd

0.167th

0.214th

0.1112th

AVL(38 matches)

Σ GI

CAM

CDM

2.61

0.872nd

0.2414th

0.2915th

0.296th

0.1316th

0.183rd

0.242nd

0.188th

0.184th

GI = Goals + Assists / matchxG = Expected Goals / matchxT = Expected Threat / match

Did the channel advantage actually produce chances?

Did the defensive gap show in chance quality?

Did AVL's travel form hold up?

Come back after the final whistle.

BurnleyBurnley
1-3
Aston VillaVilla
Foster 46'

Pre-Match Signals

Venue Form

Players who decide this

AVL

AVL

AVL

Tactical Analysis

Style and key characteristics

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Attacking Zones

Position vs Expected Position

Form & Head-to-head

Style and key characteristics

Positional Vulnerabilities

Questions for after full-time

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Players who decide this

AVL

AVL

AVL

Pre-Match Signals

Venue Form

Players who decide this

AVL

AVL

AVL

Tactical Analysis

Style and key characteristics

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Attacking Zones

Style and key characteristics

Positional Vulnerabilities

Questions for after full-time

Aston Villa formDLWLD

Head-to-head · last 5

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Players who decide this

AVL

AVL

AVL