Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal Preview: What the xG Data Says

This match has been played.

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Pre-Match Signals

ARS concede just 0.5 xGA per match vs NFO's 1.8. That gap should show in chance quality

FavoursARSSubscribers see the evidence behind this

NFO build from the back against one of the league's more aggressive presses, creating transition opportunities for ARS

FavoursARSSubscribers see the evidence behind this

ARS win 60% on the road while NFO manage just 20% at home, undermining any home edge

FavoursARSSubscribers see the evidence behind this

Nottingham Forest

Last 10 home games2W · 3D · 5L · 20% wins

Struggling at home (wasteful in front of goal)

1.0 goals per game (xG expected: 1.6)

Underperforming

1.4 conceded per game (xGA expected: 1.3)

On track

Arsenal

Last 10 away games6W · 3D · 1L · 60% wins

Solid form

1.7 goals per game (xG expected: 1.8)

On track

0.8 conceded per game (xGA expected: 0.8)

On track

Player
Saka ARS	0.77	0.36	2.99	98
Eze ARS	0.56	0.31	3.10	89
Jesus ARS	0.56	0.40	2.66	75

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Tactical Analysis

How these teams play and where the match could be decided

Possession-based ↔ Direct

Low Block ↔ High Press

Conservative ↔ Risk-taking

Central Play ↔ Wide Play

Scrappy ↔ Technical

Light ↔ Physically Dominant

Sit Off ↔ Counter-Press

Low Intensity ↔ High Intensity

Nottingham Forest

Arsenal

Least vulnerable Average Most vulnerable

NFO(38 matches)

Σ GI

CAM

CDM

2.82

0.719th

0.349th

0.3212th

0.391st

0.531st

0.165th

0.0317th

0.186th

0.165th

ARS(38 matches)

Σ GI

CAM

CDM

1.21

0.3218th

0.1118th

0.1318th

0.1315th

0.1317th

0.1313th

0.1114th

0.0817th

0.0816th

GI = Goals + Assists / matchxG = Expected Goals / matchxT = Expected Threat / match

Did the defensive gap show in chance quality?

Did the press force the turnovers we expected?

Did ARS's travel form hold up?

Come back after the final whistle.

Nottingham ForestForest
1-2
ArsenalArsenal
Awoniyi 88'

Pre-Match Signals

Venue Form

Players who decide this

ARS

ARS

ARS

Tactical Analysis

Style and key characteristics

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Attacking Zones

Position vs Expected Position

Form & Head-to-head

Style and key characteristics

Positional Vulnerabilities

Questions for after full-time

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Players who decide this

ARS

ARS

ARS

Pre-Match Signals

Venue Form

Players who decide this

ARS

ARS

ARS

Tactical Analysis

Style and key characteristics

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Attacking Zones

Style and key characteristics

Positional Vulnerabilities

Questions for after full-time

Arsenal formDDLWW

Head-to-head · last 5

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Players who decide this

ARS

ARS

ARS