Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea Preview: What the xG Data Says

This match has been played.

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Pre-Match Signals

Their recent conversion outpaces xG by 33%. If chance volume drops, the goals could dry up

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A stark contrast in approach: NFO skip the midfield while CHE control tempo, creating a pattern clash

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Combined xG profiles point to 3.3+ goals. Expect early action rather than a cagey start

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Nottingham Forest

Last 10 home games2W · 3D · 5L · 20% wins

Struggling at home (wasteful in front of goal)

1.0 goals per game (xG expected: 1.6)

Underperforming

1.4 conceded per game (xGA expected: 1.3)

On track

Chelsea

Last 10 away games5W · 3D · 2L · 50% wins

Solid form (wasteful in front of goal)

1.7 goals per game (xG expected: 1.9)

Below expected

1.0 conceded per game (xGA expected: 1.6)

Outperforming

Player
Palmer CHE	0.79	0.30	3.20	98
Pedro CHE	0.70	0.41	2.75	91
Wood NFO	0.55	0.49	1.93	74

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Tactical Analysis

How these teams play and where the match could be decided

Possession-based ↔ Direct

Low Block ↔ High Press

Conservative ↔ Risk-taking

Central Play ↔ Wide Play

Scrappy ↔ Technical

Light ↔ Physically Dominant

Sit Off ↔ Counter-Press

Low Intensity ↔ High Intensity

Nottingham Forest

Chelsea

Least vulnerable Average Most vulnerable

NFO(38 matches)

Σ GI

CAM

CDM

2.82

0.719th

0.349th

0.3212th

0.391st

0.531st

0.165th

0.0317th

0.186th

0.165th

CHE(38 matches)

Σ GI

CAM

CDM

2.42

0.6111th

0.3410th

0.3411th

0.189th

0.423rd

0.1312th

0.0816th

0.1610th

0.167th

GI = Goals + Assists / matchxG = Expected Goals / matchxT = Expected Threat / match

Did finishing regression show up, or did luck hold?

Which style came out on top, direct or possession?

Was the game as open as the xG profiles suggested?

Come back after the final whistle.

Nottingham ForestForest
2-3
ChelseaChelsea
Boly 15'
Hudson-Odoi 73'

Pre-Match Signals

Venue Form

Players who decide this

CHE

CHE

NFO

Tactical Analysis

Style and key characteristics

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Attacking Zones

Position vs Expected Position

Form & Head-to-head

Style and key characteristics

Positional Vulnerabilities

Questions for after full-time

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Players who decide this

CHE

CHE

NFO

Pre-Match Signals

Venue Form

Players who decide this

CHE

CHE

NFO

Tactical Analysis

Style and key characteristics

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Attacking Zones

Style and key characteristics

Positional Vulnerabilities

Questions for after full-time

Chelsea formLWWWW

Head-to-head · last 5

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Players who decide this

CHE

CHE

NFO