Tottenham vs Aston Villa Preview: What the xG Data Says

Tottenham

1-23.11-1.65

Villa

Celso 21'

Torres 51'
Watkins 60'

Torres 51'
Watkins 60'

Premier League 2023/2024

GW13

26 Nov 14:00

R. Jones

This match has been played.

See full analysis

Pre-Match Signals

AVL win 60% on the road while TOT manage just 10% at home, undermining any home edge

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Tottenham Hotspur

Last 10 home games1W · 4D · 5L · 10% wins

Struggling at home (leaky at the back)

1.2 goals per game (xG expected: 1.3)

On track

1.5 conceded per game (xGA expected: 1.2)

Below expected

Aston Villa

Last 10 away games6W · 2D · 2L · 60% wins

Solid form (clinical finishing)

1.7 goals per game (xG expected: 1.3)

Above expected

1.5 conceded per game (xGA expected: 1.8)

Above expected

Player
Watkins AVL	0.60	0.45	2.34	87
Richarlison TOT	0.59	0.50	2.94	68
Bailey AVL	0.58	0.23	1.80	85

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Tactical Analysis

How these teams play and where the match could be decided

Possession-based ↔ Direct

Low Block ↔ High Press

Conservative ↔ Risk-taking

Central Play ↔ Wide Play

Scrappy ↔ Technical

Light ↔ Physically Dominant

Sit Off ↔ Counter-Press

Low Intensity ↔ High Intensity

Tottenham Hotspur

Aston Villa

Possession-based ↔ Direct

Low Block ↔ High Press

Conservative ↔ Risk-taking

Central Play ↔ Wide Play

Least vulnerable Average Most vulnerable

TOT(38 matches)

Σ GI

CAM

CDM

2.50

0.823rd

0.1117th

0.505th

0.1613th

0.422nd

0.167th

0.1112th

0.187th

0.0517th

AVL(38 matches)

Σ GI

CAM

CDM

2.61

0.872nd

0.2414th

0.2915th

0.296th

0.1316th

0.183rd

0.242nd

0.188th

0.184th

GI = Goals + Assists / matchxG = Expected Goals / matchxT = Expected Threat / match

Did AVL's travel form hold up?

Did either side beat their xG?

Come back after the final whistle.

Tottenham Hotspur form

Scrappy ↔ Technical

Light ↔ Physically Dominant

Sit Off ↔ Counter-Press

Low Intensity ↔ High Intensity

Player
Watkins AVL	0.60	0.45	2.34	87
Richarlison TOT	0.59	0.50	2.94	68
Bailey AVL	0.58	0.23	1.80	85

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TottenhamTottenham
1-2
Aston VillaVilla
Celso 21'

Pre-Match Signals

Venue Form

Players who decide this

AVL

TOT

AVL

Tactical Analysis

Style and key characteristics

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Attacking Zones

Position vs Expected Position

Form & Head-to-head

Style and key characteristics

Positional Vulnerabilities

Questions for after full-time

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Players who decide this

AVL

TOT

AVL

Pre-Match Signals

Venue Form

Players who decide this

AVL

TOT

AVL

Tactical Analysis

Style and key characteristics

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Attacking Zones

Style and key characteristics

Positional Vulnerabilities

Questions for after full-time

Aston Villa formDLWLD

Head-to-head · last 5

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Players who decide this

AVL

TOT

AVL