West Ham Utd vs Aston Villa Preview: What the xG Data Says

This match has been played.

See full analysis

Pre-Match Signals

AVL concede disproportionate xG through their left side, exactly where WHU focus their attacks

FavoursWHUSubscribers see the evidence behind this

AVL win 60% on the road while WHU manage just 33% at home, undermining any home edge

FavoursAVLSubscribers see the evidence behind this

A stark contrast in approach: WHU skip the midfield while AVL control tempo, creating a pattern clash

Subscribers see the evidence behind this

West Ham United

Last 9 home games3W · 1D · 5L · 33% wins

Solid form (clinical finishing)

1.6 goals per game (xG expected: 1.4)

Above expected

1.8 conceded per game (xGA expected: 1.4)

Below expected

Aston Villa

Last 10 away games6W · 2D · 2L · 60% wins

Solid form (clinical finishing)

1.7 goals per game (xG expected: 1.3)

Above expected

1.5 conceded per game (xGA expected: 1.8)

Above expected

Player
Watkins AVL	0.60	0.45	2.34	87
Wilson WHU	0.80	0.63	2.86	89
Bailey AVL	0.58	0.23	1.80	85

27 more players, opponent-adjusted columns and last-6 trendsSign Up

Tactical Analysis

How these teams play and where the match could be decided

Possession-based ↔ Direct

Low Block ↔ High Press

Conservative ↔ Risk-taking

Central Play ↔ Wide Play

Scrappy ↔ Technical

Light ↔ Physically Dominant

Sit Off ↔ Counter-Press

Low Intensity ↔ High Intensity

West Ham United

Aston Villa

Least vulnerable Average Most vulnerable

WHU(38 matches)

Σ GI

CAM

CDM

3.00

0.921st

0.393rd

0.504th

0.1612th

0.327th

0.261st

0.0815th

0.243rd

0.138th

AVL(38 matches)

Σ GI

CAM

CDM

2.61

0.872nd

0.2414th

0.2915th

0.296th

0.1316th

0.183rd

0.242nd

0.188th

0.184th

GI = Goals + Assists / matchxG = Expected Goals / matchxT = Expected Threat / match

Did the channel advantage actually produce chances?

Did AVL's travel form hold up?

Which style came out on top, direct or possession?

Come back after the final whistle.

West Ham UtdWest Ham
1-1
Aston VillaVilla
Gregory 28'

Pre-Match Signals

Venue Form

Players who decide this

AVL

WHU

AVL

Tactical Analysis

Style and key characteristics

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Attacking Zones

Position vs Expected Position

Form & Head-to-head

Style and key characteristics

Positional Vulnerabilities

Questions for after full-time

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Players who decide this

AVL

WHU

AVL

Pre-Match Signals

Venue Form

Players who decide this

AVL

WHU

AVL

Tactical Analysis

Style and key characteristics

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Attacking Zones

Style and key characteristics

Positional Vulnerabilities

Questions for after full-time

Aston Villa formDLWLD

Head-to-head · last 5

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Players who decide this

AVL

WHU

AVL