Burnley 1-1 Nottingham Forest Match Context & xG Analysis 25/26 (20 Sep 2025)

Pre-Match Signals(3 detected)

Match Context

League standings, head-to-head and recent form

#		Team	P	Pts
17	125	Nottingham Forest	19	18	-12
19	201	Burnley	19	12	-17

Burnley

Wasteful in front of goal

•Scoring 0.8 goals per match (expected 1.2)
•Conceding 1.7 goals per match (expected 1.6)

Nottingham Forest

Wasteful in front of goal

•Scoring 0.8 goals per match (expected 1.4)
•Conceding 1.3 goals per match (expected 1.2)

Tactical Analysis

How these teams play and where the match could be decided

Possession-basedDirect

Low BlockHigh Press

Burnley

Nottingham Forest

Least vulnerable Average Most vulnerable

BUR(17 matches)

Σ GI

CAM

CDM

2.82

0.763rd

0.535th

0.472nd

0.1215th

0.1812th

0.294th

0.0613th

0.245th

0.186th

NFO(16 matches)

Σ GI

CAM

CDM

2.13

0.5011th

0.318th

0.387th

0.1314th

0.1911th

0.258th

0.0610th

0.1310th

0.195th

GI = Goals + Assists / matchxG = Expected Goals / matchxT = Expected Threat / match

Did either team exceed their expected xG range?

Did finishing variance continue or regress?

Who controlled the tempo: Burnley or Nottingham Forest?

Return after full-time to see how these played out.

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BurnleyBurnley 1 - 1 Nottingham ForestForest

Expected Goals

Pre-Match Signals(3 detected)

Match Context

League Positions

Expected Goals

Tactical Analysis

Burnley

Attacking Zones

Positional Vulnerabilities

After the match, we'll check

Head to Head

Recent Form

Nottingham Forest

Players to Watch