Leeds United vs Chelsea prediction, 23 Jan 2027: xG model

Leeds United favoured at home, but only just.

LEE43%Draw27%CHE31%

Based on 15 matches played this season.

Leeds1.6Chelsea1.3

A 0.3 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

PROLeeds United shape report PROChelsea shape report

Where each side attacks, where the other concedes, and the biggest mismatch between them.

Your squad in this match

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Suggested picks

Player	Price	Owned
1João Pedro(C)FW	£7.8m	68.4%
2M. RogersMF	£7.9m	44.1%
3C. Palmer

PROMy Team, projections

40%called correctly

Error score

6% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.211 against 0.226 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

34%·61

50-60%

56%·9

60-70%

75%·4

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 75 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Your squad in this match

See which of your FPL players are in this match, who's nailed and who's a rotation risk, on every match preview.

Sync my FPL squad

Team ID only. Takes 30 seconds. Free.

Suggested picks

Player	Price	Owned
1João Pedro(C)FW	£7.8m	68.4%
2M. RogersMF	£7.9m	44.1%
3C. Palmer

PROMy Team, projections

Leeds United Player	Routine	Taken	xG
E. Ampadu	Throw-ins
A. Stach	Corners L and R
A. Stach	Free kicks
H. Wilson	Corners L and R, 1 short
H. Wilson	Free kicks

Chelsea Player	Routine	Taken	xG
J. Henderson	Corners L and R, 5 short
Pedro Neto	Corners L and R, 5 short
R. James	Corners L and R

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

Leeds UnitedLeeds
vs
ChelseaChelsea

Leeds UnitedLeeds
vs
ChelseaChelsea

Leeds UnitedLeeds
vs
ChelseaChelsea

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities Locked, Pro.

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

What this match is worth to you

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

What this match is worth to you

Set-piece takers Locked, Pro.

Key players

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities Locked, Pro.

Style ranks

What this match is worth to you

Form & Head-to-head

Leeds United formDWDLD, most recent

Chelsea formDLWWL, most recent

Head-to-head · last 5

Model accuracy

What this match is worth to you

Set-piece takers Locked, Pro.

Key players