Liverpool vs Arsenal prediction, 1 Nov 2026: xG model

Arsenal favoured away from home, but only just.

LIV35%Draw29%ARS37%

Based on 16 matches played this season.

Liverpool1.3Arsenal1.4

A 0.1 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

PROLiverpool shape report PROArsenal shape report

Where each side attacks, where the other concedes, and the biggest mismatch between them.

Your squad in this match

See which of your FPL players are in this match, who's nailed and who's a rotation risk, on every match preview.

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Suggested picks

Player	Price	Owned
1B. Saka(C)MF	£9.6m	16.9%
2A. IsakFW	£9m	15.4%
3R. Calafiori

PROMy Team, projections

39%called correctly

Error score

6% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.225 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

33%·66

50-60%

56%·9

60-70%

75%·4

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 80 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Your squad in this match

See which of your FPL players are in this match, who's nailed and who's a rotation risk, on every match preview.

Sync my FPL squad

Team ID only. Takes 30 seconds. Free.

Suggested picks

Player	Price	Owned
1B. Saka(C)MF	£9.6m	16.9%
2A. IsakFW	£9m	15.4%
3R. Calafiori

PROMy Team, projections

Liverpool Player	Routine	Taken	xG
D. Szoboszlai	Corners L and R, 2 short
D. Szoboszlai	Free kicks
A. Mac Allister	Corners L and R, 5 short
F. Wirtz	Corners L and R
R. Araújo	Throw-ins
D. Szoboszlai	Penalties

Arsenal Player	Routine	Taken	xG
D. Rice	Corners L, 1 short
B. Saka	Corners R, 3 short
M. Ødegaard	Free kicks

Player	Rating	Score	Assist	xGI/90	Mins
A. IsakCF · Liverpool
B. BarcolaWG · Liverpool
C. GakpoWG · Liverpool
F. WirtzCAM · Liverpool
K. HavertzCF · Arsenal
V. GyökeresCF · Arsenal

LiverpoolLiverpool
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ArsenalArsenal

LiverpoolLiverpool
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ArsenalArsenal

LiverpoolLiverpool
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ArsenalArsenal

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities Locked, Pro.

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

What this match is worth to you

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

What this match is worth to you

Set-piece takers Locked, Pro.

Key players Locked, Pro.

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities Locked, Pro.

Style ranks

What this match is worth to you

Form & Head-to-head

Liverpool formDWLWW, most recent

Arsenal formWLWWW, most recent

Head-to-head · last 5

Model accuracy

What this match is worth to you

Set-piece takers Locked, Pro.

Key players Locked, Pro.