Check whether a hard fixture is as bad as it looks
Decide whether to bench a player for a tough-looking match, from the preview, the team report and both sides' styles.
FPL 1 of 35 sections
Liverpool away looks like a week to bench an Arsenal defender. The team pages say keep them. On 26 October, Liverpool were projected to create more against Arsenal than most sides do. But Arsenal had the best defence in the league on expected goals, and their way of defending suits a fixture like this. This chapter shows how to test a hard-looking fixture in a few minutes before you make the call.
The figures are from 26 October 2026, after eight league matches and before Liverpool v Arsenal on 1 November. Yours will differ, but the checks are the same.
Is it harder than a normal week?
Start with the match preview. From Arsenal, the Next 5 list links each fixture to its preview. Liverpool v Arsenal showed a Projected xG of 1.3 for Liverpool.
Now compare that with a normal Arsenal match. Open Report, then Defence. Arsenal were conceding 0.97 expected goals per match, the lowest in the league.
So yes, it is harder than usual. But 1.3 is not a hammering, and the preview's Last 6, goals vs xG showed Liverpool had scored 7 from 10.4 xG. They were creating, not finishing.
Why do Arsenal concede so little?
A good number can hide a weakness, so check how Arsenal get it. The Defence key stats on 26 October:
| Key stat | Arsenal | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| PPDA | 10.8 | #6 / 20 |
| Opp-half recoveries | 23.8, 31% of all recoveries | #18 / 20 |
| npxGA per shot faced | 0.09 | #1 / 19 |
| npxGA per match | 0.97 | #1 / 19 |
Arsenal close opponents down early, sixth on PPDA, but win the ball back deep: few of their recoveries come in the opponent's half. The chances they allow are the poorest in the league.
The Out of possession card on Overview says the same in one line. Arsenal ranked 19th of 20 for pressing high and 18th for counter-pressing. Hover a row, or tap it on a phone, to read the rank. The report cover summed them up as "Central play, low block, clean".
That is the shape a clean-sheet defender wants: a side that lets opponents have the ball where it does little harm.
Does the opponent's style hurt that?
Read Liverpool the same way. Their Out of possession card put them 4th highest pressing and 2nd most intense, with a PPDA of 8.80, second in the league.
That is the risk for Arsenal. A side that sits deep has to play out from there, and Liverpool press hard. Mistakes near Arsenal's own goal are the chances that beat a low block. It is a real risk, but the season so far says Arsenal have handled pressure well: they have allowed the fewest good chances of anyone.
The preview's Style ranks card sets both sides' style ranks side by side, so you can make this check for any fixture.
What could change the call
Three things would make you less sure.
- Eight matches is a small sample. One bad game moves a season figure a long way. With Pro, PPDA by match in Defence shows whether the numbers are steady or driven by a few games.
- Recent form. The bar at the top of the report switches between Season, Last 5 and Last 3, and All, H or A. Season and All are free; the others need Pro. A side that has changed recently looks different over its last five.
- The shape. Formation spells in Shape is free and shows when Arsenal changed shape during matches. A new back line would make the season figures less useful.
Make the call
On this evidence, keep the Arsenal defender unless you have a bench option with a clearly easier fixture. The fixture is harder than an average week, but it plays into how Arsenal defend.
To see whether a bench option is better, check its run in fixture difficulty, or read Build a transfer shortlist from a six-gameweek fixture run. Run the same checks for any fixture that makes you hesitate: projected xG against the side's normal week, how it defends, and whether the opponent's style hurts that.