Aston Villa vs Manchester City preview, 6 Dec 2023: xG form

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This match has been played.

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MCI favoured away from home, but only just.

AVL27%Draw24%MCI49%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Villa1.3Man City1.8

A 0.5 xG edge, roughly a one-in-two win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

AVL attack

LW0.24

CF0.87

RW0.29

CAM0.29

CDM0.18

CM0.13

LB0.24

CB0.18

RB0.18

PROAVL attack report PROMCI defence report

Very low intensityHigh intensity

PROAVL shape report PROMCI shape report

Premier League 2023/2024

GW15

06 Dec 20:15

J. Brooks

MCI attack

LW0.26

CF0.39

RW0.21

CAM0.13

CDM0.05

CM0.08

LB0.03

CB0.05

RB0.13

Last 6, goals vs xG

AVL10 scored from 8.0 xG+2.0

MCI20 scored from 14.1 xG+5.9

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Mid-blockVery high line

Very lightMiddling physicality

Very centralCentral play

Very cautiousCautious

TechnicalVery technical

Drops right offSits off

Patient build-upPatient build-up

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

AVL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Luiz	Corners L and R, 25 short	100	2.5
Luiz	Free kicks	56	2.2
McGinn	Corners L and R, 6 short	37	1.4
Digne	Corners L and R, 5 short	35	1.4
Bailey	Corners L and R, 9 short	30	1.7
Luiz	Penalties	4	3.0

Share of set-play xG

Corners

40%

Throw-ins

28%

MCI Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Álvarez	Corners L and R, 44 short	129	3.2
Bruyne	Corners L and R, 17 short	68	3.2
Foden	Corners L and R, 10 short	50	1.5
Álvarez

PROAVL set pieces PROMCI set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

38%

Penalties

26%

Aston VillaVilla
1-0
Manchester CityMan City
Bailey 73'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers