Aston Villa vs Wolverhampton preview, 30 Mar 2024: xG form

30 Mar 17:30

P. Tierney

This match has been played.

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AVL clear favourites at home.

AVL58%Draw21%WOL21%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Villa2.1Wolves1.2

A 0.9 xG edge, roughly a three-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

AVL attack

LW0.24

CF0.87

RW0.29

CAM0.29

CDM0.18

CM0.13

LB0.24

CB0.18

RB0.18

PROAVL attack report PROWOL defence report

Very lightFairly physical

PROAVL shape report PROWOL shape report

WOL attack

LW0.39

CF0.76

RW0.39

CAM0.11

CDM0.13

CM0.29

LB0.18

CB0.16

RB0.16

Last 6, goals vs xG

AVL10 scored from 8.0 xG+2.0

WOL4 scored from 4.6 xG-0.6

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Very low intensityMiddling intensity

Drops right offSits off

Middling controlTechnical

Patient build-upPossession-based

CautiousMeasured risk

Central playCentral play

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

AVL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Luiz	Corners L and R, 25 short	100	2.5
Luiz	Free kicks	56	2.2
McGinn	Corners L and R, 6 short	37	1.4
Digne	Corners L and R, 5 short	35	1.4
Bailey	Corners L and R, 9 short	30	1.7
Luiz	Penalties	4	3.0

Share of set-play xG

Corners

40%

Throw-ins

28%

WOL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Sarabia	Corners L and R, 6 short	71	3.6
Neto	Corners L and R, 7 short	34	0.7
Sarabia	Free kicks	31	1.8
Sarabia

PROAVL set pieces PROWOL set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

41%

Free kicks

26%

Aston VillaVilla
2-0
WolverhamptonWolves
Diaby 35'
Konsa 64'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers