Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest Preview: What the xG Data Says

This match has been played.

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Pre-Match Signals

Their recent conversion outpaces xG by 33%. If chance volume drops, the goals could dry up

FavoursBOUSubscribers see the evidence behind this

BOU concede just 1.3 xGA per match vs NFO's 1.8. That gap should show in chance quality

FavoursBOUSubscribers see the evidence behind this

NFO build from the back against one of the league's more aggressive presses, creating transition opportunities for BOU

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Bournemouth

Last 10 home games4W · 4D · 2L · 40% wins

Solid form (leaky at the back)

1.7 goals per game (xG expected: 1.7)

On track

1.3 conceded per game (xGA expected: 0.9)

Below expected

Nottingham Forest

Last 10 away games4W · 0D · 6L · 40% wins

Solid form (solid defence)

1.0 goals per game (xG expected: 0.9)

On track

1.5 conceded per game (xGA expected: 1.8)

Above expected

Player
Wood NFO	0.55	0.49	1.93	74
Ünal BOU	0.57	0.55	3.81	-
Brooks BOU	0.62	0.44	3.15	-

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Tactical Analysis

How these teams play and where the match could be decided

Possession-based ↔ Direct

Low Block ↔ High Press

Conservative ↔ Risk-taking

Central Play ↔ Wide Play

Scrappy ↔ Technical

Light ↔ Physically Dominant

Sit Off ↔ Counter-Press

Low Intensity ↔ High Intensity

Bournemouth

Nottingham Forest

Least vulnerable Average Most vulnerable

BOU(38 matches)

Σ GI

CAM

CDM

2.66

0.5513th

0.661st

0.503rd

0.1611th

0.344th

0.1114th

0.166th

0.1114th

0.0815th

NFO(38 matches)

Σ GI

CAM

CDM

2.82

0.719th

0.349th

0.3212th

0.391st

0.531st

0.165th

0.0317th

0.186th

0.165th

GI = Goals + Assists / matchxG = Expected Goals / matchxT = Expected Threat / match

Did finishing regression show up, or did luck hold?

Did the defensive gap show in chance quality?

Did the press force the turnovers we expected?

Come back after the final whistle.

BournemouthBournemouth
1-1
Nottingham ForestForest
Kluivert 4'

Pre-Match Signals

Venue Form

Players who decide this

NFO

BOU

BOU

Tactical Analysis

Style and key characteristics

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Attacking Zones

Position vs Expected Position

Form & Head-to-head

Style and key characteristics

Positional Vulnerabilities

Questions for after full-time

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Players who decide this

NFO

BOU

BOU

Pre-Match Signals

Venue Form

Players who decide this

NFO

BOU

BOU

Tactical Analysis

Style and key characteristics

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Attacking Zones

Style and key characteristics

Positional Vulnerabilities

Questions for after full-time

Nottingham Forest formWDWDL

Head-to-head · last 5

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Players who decide this

NFO

BOU

BOU