Chelsea vs Aston Villa preview, 24 Sep 2023: xG form

24 Sep 13:00

J. Gillett

This match has been played.

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CHE favoured at home, but only just.

CHE47%Draw23%AVL30%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Chelsea1.9Villa1.5

A 0.4 xG edge, roughly a one-in-two win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

CHE attack

LW0.34

CF0.61

RW0.34

CAM0.18

CDM0.13

CM0.42

LB0.08

CB0.16

RB0.16

PROCHE attack report PROAVL defence report

Very centralCentral play

PROCHE shape report PROAVL shape report

AVL attack

LW0.24

CF0.87

RW0.29

CAM0.29

CDM0.18

CM0.13

LB0.24

CB0.18

RB0.18

Last 6, goals vs xG

CHE16 scored from 11.0 xG+5.0

AVL10 scored from 8.0 xG+2.0

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Very low intensityLow intensity

Sits deeperMid-block

Very cautiousCautious

Very lightVery light

Patient build-upPatient build-up

Drops right offDrops right off

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

CHE Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Mudryk	Corners L and R, 11 short	54	0.9
Palmer	Corners L and R, 17 short	54	1.2
Gallagher	Corners L and R, 13 short	43	1.3
Palmer	Penalties	9	6.8
Fernández	Penalties	2	1.5
Madueke	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Penalties

39%

Free kicks

21%

AVL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Luiz	Corners L and R, 25 short	100	2.5
Luiz	Free kicks	56	2.2
McGinn	Corners L and R, 6 short	37	1.4
Digne

PROCHE set pieces PROAVL set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

40%

Throw-ins

28%

ChelseaChelsea
0-1
Aston VillaVilla

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers