Luton Town vs Manchester Utd preview, 18 Feb 2024: xG form

18 Feb 16:30

D. Coote

This match has been played.

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Luton Town favoured at home, but only just.

LUT39%Draw22%MUN39%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Luton1.9Man Utd1.9

Next to nothing between them on expected goals, this one could go either way.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

Luton Town attack

PROLuton Town attack report PROMUN defence report

LightPhysically dominant

PROLuton Town shape report PROMUN shape report

MUN attack

LW0.29

CF0.53

RW0.39

CAM0.29

CDM0.18

CM0.21

LB0.13

CB0.26

RB0.13

Last 6, goals vs xG

LUT7 scored from 5.8 xG+1.2

MUN10 scored from 11.0 xG-1.0

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Measured riskVery bold

Very scrappyMiddling control

Mid-blockPresses higher

Fairly directVery direct

Low intensityMiddling intensity

Mixed responseCounter-presses

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

Luton Town Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Doughty	Corners L and R, 2 short	152	6.2
Doughty	Free kicks	70	1.7
Barkley	Free kicks	43	1.1
Doughty	Throw-ins	16	0.1
Giles	Corners L and R	15	0.4
Morris	Penalties	5	3.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

46%

Throw-ins

21%

MUN Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Fernandes	Corners L and R, 37 short	150	5.9
Fernandes	Free kicks	49	2.8
Eriksen	Corners L and R, 3 short	26	0.5
Shaw

PROLuton Town set pieces PROMUN set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

38%

Penalties

24%

Luton TownLuton
1-2
Manchester UtdMan Utd
Morris 13'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers