Newcastle Utd vs Aston Villa preview, 12 Aug 2023: xG form

12 Aug 16:30

A. Madley

This match has been played.

See full analysis

NEW favoured at home, but only just.

NEW50%Draw21%AVL28%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Newcastle2.1Villa1.5

A 0.6 xG edge, roughly a one-in-two win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

NEW attack

LW0.37

CF0.79

RW0.55

CAM0.32

CDM0.00

CM0.29

LB0.11

CB0.11

RB0.11

PRONEW attack report PROAVL defence report

Very low intensityVery high intensity

PRONEW shape report PROAVL shape report

AVL attack

LW0.24

CF0.87

RW0.29

CAM0.29

CDM0.18

CM0.13

LB0.24

CB0.18

RB0.18

Last 6, goals vs xG

NEW16 scored from 14.4 xG+1.6

AVL10 scored from 8.0 xG+2.0

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Patient build-upMixed build-up

Drops right offSits off

CautiousMeasured risk

Mid-blockPresses higher

Central playEven width

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

NEW Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Trippier	Corners L and R, 12 short	111	4.1
Trippier	Free kicks	73	3.3
Gordon	Corners L and R, 11 short	48	1.8
Isak	Penalties	6	4.6
Wilson	Penalties	2	1.5
Gordon	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

29%

Free kicks

27%

AVL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Luiz	Corners L and R, 25 short	100	2.5
Luiz	Free kicks	56	2.2
McGinn	Corners L and R, 6 short	37	1.4
Digne

PRONEW set pieces PROAVL set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

40%

Throw-ins

28%

Newcastle UtdNewcastle
5-1
Aston VillaVilla
Tonali 5'
Isak 15'
Isak

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers