Newcastle Utd vs Aston Villa Preview: What the xG Data Says

This match has been played.

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Pre-Match Signals

AVL concede disproportionate xG through their right side, exactly where NEW focus their attacks

FavoursNEWSubscribers see the evidence behind this

Three straight defeats will affect their approach. Expect a cautious opening from NEW

FavoursAVLSubscribers see the evidence behind this

Goals are diverging from expected levels on both sides, suggesting regression could hit either team's attack

Subscribers see the evidence behind this

Newcastle United

Last 11 home games6W · 2D · 3L · 55% wins

Solid form (wasteful in front of goal)

1.9 goals per game (xG expected: 2.3)

Below expected

1.5 conceded per game (xGA expected: 1.5)

On track

Aston Villa

Last 10 away games6W · 2D · 2L · 60% wins

Solid form (clinical finishing)

1.7 goals per game (xG expected: 1.3)

Above expected

1.5 conceded per game (xGA expected: 1.8)

Above expected

Player
Watkins AVL	0.60	0.45	2.34	87
Bailey AVL	0.58	0.23	1.80	85
Elliott AVL	0.50	0.22	2.84	96

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Tactical Analysis

How these teams play and where the match could be decided

Possession-based ↔ Direct

Low Block ↔ High Press

Conservative ↔ Risk-taking

Central Play ↔ Wide Play

Scrappy ↔ Technical

Light ↔ Physically Dominant

Sit Off ↔ Counter-Press

Low Intensity ↔ High Intensity

Newcastle United

Aston Villa

Least vulnerable Average Most vulnerable

NEW(38 matches)

Σ GI

CAM

CDM

2.63

0.795th

0.378th

0.552nd

0.323rd

0.2910th

0.0018th

0.1113th

0.1115th

0.1114th

AVL(38 matches)

Σ GI

CAM

CDM

2.61

0.872nd

0.2414th

0.2915th

0.296th

0.1316th

0.183rd

0.242nd

0.188th

0.184th

GI = Goals + Assists / matchxG = Expected Goals / matchxT = Expected Threat / match

Did the channel advantage actually produce chances?

Did the struggling side show signs of recovery?

Did finishing regression show up, or did luck hold?

Come back after the final whistle.

Newcastle UtdNewcastle
5-1
Aston VillaVilla
Tonali 5'
Isak 15'
Isak

Pre-Match Signals

Venue Form

Players who decide this

AVL

AVL

AVL

Tactical Analysis

Style and key characteristics

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Attacking Zones

Position vs Expected Position

Form & Head-to-head

Style and key characteristics

Positional Vulnerabilities

Questions for after full-time

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Players who decide this

AVL

AVL

AVL

Pre-Match Signals

Venue Form

Players who decide this

AVL

AVL

AVL

Tactical Analysis

Style and key characteristics

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Attacking Zones

Style and key characteristics

Positional Vulnerabilities

Questions for after full-time

Aston Villa formDLWLD

Head-to-head · last 5

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Players who decide this

AVL

AVL

AVL