Newcastle Utd vs Fulham preview, 16 Dec 2023: xG form

16 Dec 15:00

S. Barrott

This match has been played.

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NEW favoured at home, but only just.

NEW54%Draw21%FUL25%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Newcastle2.2Fulham1.4

A 0.7 xG edge, roughly a one-in-two win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

NEW attack

LW0.37

CF0.79

RW0.55

CAM0.32

CDM0.00

CM0.29

LB0.11

CB0.11

RB0.11

PRONEW attack report PROFUL defence report

Very low intensityVery high intensity

PRONEW shape report PROFUL shape report

FUL attack

LW0.29

CF0.74

RW0.32

CAM0.29

CDM0.11

CM0.18

LB0.18

CB0.08

RB0.11

Last 6, goals vs xG

NEW16 scored from 14.4 xG+1.6

FUL8 scored from 9.5 xG-1.5

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Deep blockPresses higher

LightFairly physical

Drops right offSits off

Possession-basedMixed build-up

CautiousMeasured risk

Middling controlTechnical

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

NEW Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Trippier	Corners L and R, 12 short	111	4.1
Trippier	Free kicks	73	3.3
Gordon	Corners L and R, 11 short	48	1.8
Isak	Penalties	6	4.6
Wilson	Penalties	2	1.5
Gordon	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

29%

Free kicks

27%

FUL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Pereira	Corners L and R, 23 short	148	6.1
Pereira	Free kicks	41	0.9
Willian	Corners L and R, 10 short	35	1.2
Robinson

PRONEW set pieces PROFUL set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

56%

Throw-ins

26%

Newcastle UtdNewcastle
3-0
FulhamFulham
Miley 56'
Almirón 63'
Burn

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers