Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle Utd preview, 10 Feb 2024: xG form

10 Feb 17:30

A. Taylor

This match has been played.

See full analysis

NFO favoured at home, but only just.

NFO42%Draw23%NEW34%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Forest1.8Newcastle1.6

A 0.2 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

NFO attack

LW0.34

CF0.71

RW0.32

CAM0.39

CDM0.16

CM0.53

LB0.03

CB0.18

RB0.16

PRONFO attack report PRONEW defence report

Very low intensityVery high intensity

PRONFO shape report PRONEW shape report

NEW attack

LW0.37

CF0.79

RW0.55

CAM0.32

CDM0.00

CM0.29

LB0.11

CB0.11

RB0.11

Last 6, goals vs xG

NFO9 scored from 11.9 xG-2.9

NEW16 scored from 14.4 xG+1.6

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Deep blockPresses higher

LightFairly physical

Mixed build-upFairly direct

Measured riskTakes risks

Sits offMixed response

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

NFO Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Gibbs-White	Corners L and R, 9 short	97	3.3
Gibbs-White	Free kicks	80	3.2
Niakhaté	Throw-ins	44	0.7
Aina	Throw-ins	26	0.7
Danilo	Corners R	18	0.6
Gibbs-White	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

46%

Throw-ins

26%

NEW Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Trippier	Corners L and R, 12 short	111	4.1
Trippier	Free kicks	73	3.3
Gordon	Corners L and R, 11 short	48	1.8
Isak

PRONFO set pieces PRONEW set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

29%

Free kicks

27%

Nottingham ForestForest
2-3
Newcastle UtdNewcastle
Elanga 26'
Hudson-Odoi 51'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers