Wolverhampton vs Aston Villa preview, 8 Oct 2023: xG form

08 Oct 13:00

R. Jones

This match has been played.

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AVL favoured away from home, but only just.

WOL36%Draw24%AVL40%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Wolves1.5Villa1.6

A 0.1 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

WOL attack

LW0.39

CF0.76

RW0.39

CAM0.11

CDM0.13

CM0.29

LB0.18

CB0.16

RB0.16

PROWOL attack report PROAVL defence report

Very lightFairly physical

PROWOL shape report PROAVL shape report

AVL attack

LW0.24

CF0.87

RW0.29

CAM0.29

CDM0.18

CM0.13

LB0.24

CB0.18

RB0.18

Last 6, goals vs xG

WOL4 scored from 4.6 xG-0.6

AVL10 scored from 8.0 xG+2.0

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Very low intensityMiddling intensity

Drops right offSits off

Middling controlTechnical

Patient build-upPossession-based

CautiousMeasured risk

Central playCentral play

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

WOL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Sarabia	Corners L and R, 6 short	71	3.6
Neto	Corners L and R, 7 short	34	0.7
Sarabia	Free kicks	31	1.8
Sarabia	Penalties	2	1.5
Hee-Chan	Penalties	1	0.8
Cunha	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

41%

Free kicks

26%

AVL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Luiz	Corners L and R, 25 short	100	2.5
Luiz	Free kicks	56	2.2
McGinn	Corners L and R, 6 short	37	1.4
Digne

PROWOL set pieces PROAVL set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

40%

Throw-ins

28%

WolverhamptonWolves
1-1
Aston VillaVilla
Hee-Chan 52'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers