Premier League xG Match Predictions & Clean Sheet Probabilities (25/26)

xG-Based Match Predictions

Forecasted goals and clean sheet probabilities for each team using Poisson distribution modeling based on Team Strength Ratings.

Toggle between Expected Goals (xG) for attacking output or Clean Sheet % for defensive analysis using the buttons below.

GW 15-20

H = HomeA = Away

Green highlight = above-average xG (1.3+)

Team

Σ xG

GW15

GW16

GW17

GW18

GW19

GW20

LIV

13.9

LEEA

1.18

BRIH

2.74

TOTA

1.87

WOLH

3.24

LEEH

3.39

FULA

1.48

ARS

13.0

AVLA

1.17

WOLH

3.50

EVEA

1.29

BRIH

2.96

AVLH

3.00

BOUA

1.07

BRE

12.7

TOTA

1.39

LEEH

2.98

WOLA

1.45

BOUH

3.16

TOTH

2.67

EVEA

1.03

MCI

12.5

SUNH

2.75

CRYA

1.20

WHUH

3.44

NFOA

1.38

SUNA

1.19

CHEH

2.54

CHE

12.2

BOUA

0.97

EVEH

2.62

NEWA

1.32

AVLH

2.76

BOUH

3.57

MCIA

0.98

BRI

12.1

WHUH

2.83

LIVA

0.90

SUNH

2.27

ARSA

0.60

WHUA

1.70

BURH

3.82

NEW

12.0

BURH

4.26

SUNA

0.93

CHEH

2.33

MUNA

0.91

BURA

1.23

CRYH

2.34

MUN

11.2

WOLA

1.40

BOUH

3.06

AVLA

0.90

NEWH

2.26

WOLH

2.76

LEEA

0.85

BOU

10.3

CHEH

1.89

MUNA

1.16

BURH

3.45

BREA

1.54

CHEA

1.04

ARSH

1.21

FUL

9.8

CRYH

1.82

BURA

1.25

NFOH

2.19

WHUA

1.51

CRYA

0.96

LIVH

2.04

CPL

9.7

FULA

1.10

MCIH

1.80

LEEA

0.88

TOTH

2.41

FULH

2.38

NEWA

1.16

AVL

9.5

ARSH

1.43

WHUA

1.24

MUNH

3.07

CHEA

0.68

ARSA

0.44

NFOH

2.69

LEE

9.5

LIVH

2.42

BREA

0.83

CRYH

2.15

SUNA

0.64

LIVA

0.54

MUNH

2.96

TOT

9.3

BREH

1.86

NFOA

1.20

LIVH

1.94

CRYA

1.05

BREA

1.35

SUNH

1.86

NFO

8.8

EVEA

0.92

TOTH

2.31

FULA

0.98

MCIH

1.73

EVEH

2.01

AVLA

0.83

WHU

8.5

BRIA

1.11

AVLH

1.75

MCIA

0.76

FULH

1.89

BRIH

1.73

WOLA

1.29

WOL

7.7

MUNH

2.17

ARSA

0.39

BREH

1.70

LIVA

0.59

MUNA

0.68

WHUH

2.13

EVE

7.4

NFOH

2.09

CHEA

0.61

ARSH

1.11

BURA

0.92

NFOA

0.80

BREH

1.87

SUN

6.7

MCIA

0.47

NEWH

1.53

BRIA

0.68

LEEH

1.95

MCIH

1.31

TOTA

0.76

BUR

5.8

NEWA

1.00

FULH

1.09

BOUA

0.73

EVEH

0.96

NEWH

0.97

BRIA

1.07

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Cell Highlighting: Only fixtures with xG above 1.3 are highlighted. Darker green = more favorable attacking fixture.