Arsenal vs Aston Villa preview, 30 Dec 2025: xG form

30 Dec 20:15

D. England

This match has been played.

See full analysis

ARS favoured at home, but only just.

ARS53%Draw26%AVL21%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Arsenal1.8Villa1.1

A 0.7 xG edge, roughly a one-in-two win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

ARS attack

LW0.00

CF0.29

RW0.00

CAM0.06

CDM0.12

CM0.06

LB0.00

CB0.29

RB0.12

PROARS attack report PROAVL defence report

Very low intensityVery high intensity

PROARS shape report PROAVL shape report

AVL attack

LW0.12

CF0.29

RW0.18

CAM0.06

CDM0.29

CM0.18

LB0.12

CB0.24

RB0.00

Last 6, goals vs xG

ARS9 scored from 12.4 xG-3.4

AVL13 scored from 10.9 xG+2.1

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Very lightMiddling physicality

Mid-blockVery high line

Drops right offSits off

Patient build-upPossession-based

Very cautiousCautious

Very centralVery central

TechnicalVery technical

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

ARS Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Rice	Corners L and R, 9 short	95	5.5
Rice	Free kicks	75	3.2
Saka	Corners R, 9 short	64	4.3
Madueke	Corners R, 3 short	38	1.3
Gyökeres	Penalties	3	2.3
Saka	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

46%

Throw-ins

24%

AVL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Cash	Corners L and R, 4 short	44	1.6
Cash	Throw-ins	41	0.2
Digne	Corners L and R, 9 short	40	2.4
Tielemans

PROARS set pieces PROAVL set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

54%

Throw-ins

27%

ArsenalArsenal
4-1
Aston VillaVilla
Magalhaes 47'
Zubimendi 51'
Trossard

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers