Arsenal vs Manchester City preview, 21 Sep 2025: xG form

21 Sep 15:30

S. Attwell

This match has been played.

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ARS favoured at home, but only just.

ARS46%Draw26%MCI28%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Arsenal1.8Man City1.3

A 0.4 xG edge, roughly a one-in-two win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

ARS attack

LW0.00

CF0.29

RW0.00

CAM0.06

CDM0.12

CM0.06

LB0.00

CB0.29

RB0.12

PROARS attack report PROMCI defence report

LightMiddling physicality

PROARS shape report PROMCI shape report

MCI attack

LW0.59

CF0.18

RW0.06

CAM0.18

CDM0.18

CM0.00

LB0.06

CB0.00

RB0.06

Last 6, goals vs xG

ARS9 scored from 12.4 xG-3.4

MCI12 scored from 12.7 xG-0.7

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Patient build-upPossession-based

Very technicalVery technical

Very centralVery central

Very cautiousVery cautious

High intensityVery high intensity

Very high lineVery high line

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

ARS Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Rice	Corners L and R, 9 short	95	5.5
Rice	Free kicks	75	3.2
Saka	Corners R, 9 short	64	4.3
Madueke	Corners R, 3 short	38	1.3
Gyökeres	Penalties	3	2.3
Saka	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

46%

Throw-ins

24%

MCI Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Foden	Corners L and R, 5 short	91	3.1
Cherki	Corners L and R, 8 short	54	1.8
Silva	Corners L and R, 18 short	47	1.6
Reijnders

PROARS set pieces PROMCI set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

54%

Throw-ins

22%

ArsenalArsenal
1-1
Manchester CityMan City
Martinelli 92'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers