Aston Villa vs Brighton preview, 11 Feb 2026: xG form

11 Feb 19:30

P. Bankes

This match has been played.

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AVL favoured at home, but only just.

AVL46%Draw28%BHA26%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Villa1.6Brighton1.1

A 0.4 xG edge, roughly a one-in-two win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

AVL attack

LW0.12

CF0.29

RW0.18

CAM0.06

CDM0.29

CM0.18

LB0.12

CB0.24

RB0.00

PROAVL attack report PROBRI defence report

Very low intensityVery high intensity

PROAVL shape report PROBRI shape report

BRI attack

LW0.12

CF0.71

RW0.18

CAM0.24

CDM0.06

CM0.24

LB0.12

CB0.06

RB0.06

Last 6, goals vs xG

AVL13 scored from 10.9 xG+2.1

BHA9 scored from 11.2 xG-2.2

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Drops right offCounter-presses

Very lightFairly physical

Mid-blockVery high line

Very centralEven width

Patient build-upPossession-based

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

AVL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Cash	Corners L and R, 4 short	44	1.6
Cash	Throw-ins	41	0.2
Digne	Corners L and R, 9 short	40	2.4
Tielemans	Free kicks	35	0.7
McGinn	Corners L and R, 4 short	28	0.7
Tielemans	Corners L and R, 8 short	26	1.1

Share of set-play xG

Corners

54%

Throw-ins

27%

BRI Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Groß	Corners L and R, 4 short	57	1.6
Cuyper	Corners R, 1 short	35	3.4
Minteh	Corners L and R, 7 short	31	0.6
Welbeck

PROAVL set pieces PROBRI set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

47%

Penalties

21%

Aston VillaVilla
1-0
BrightonBrighton
Hinshelwood (OG) 85'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers