Aston Villa vs Manchester City preview, 26 Oct 2025: xG form

26 Oct 14:00

M. Oliver

This match has been played.

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MCI favoured away from home, but only just.

AVL36%Draw27%MCI37%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Villa1.5Man City1.6

Next to nothing between them on expected goals, this one could go either way.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

AVL attack

LW0.12

CF0.29

RW0.18

CAM0.06

CDM0.29

CM0.18

LB0.12

CB0.24

RB0.00

PROAVL attack report PROMCI defence report

Very low intensityHigh intensity

PROAVL shape report PROMCI shape report

MCI attack

LW0.59

CF0.18

RW0.06

CAM0.18

CDM0.18

CM0.00

LB0.06

CB0.00

RB0.06

Last 6, goals vs xG

AVL13 scored from 10.9 xG+2.1

MCI12 scored from 12.7 xG-0.7

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Mid-blockVery high line

Very cautiousCautious

TechnicalVery technical

Very centralVery central

Drops right offSits off

Patient build-upPatient build-up

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

AVL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Cash	Corners L and R, 4 short	44	1.6
Cash	Throw-ins	41	0.2
Digne	Corners L and R, 9 short	40	2.4
Tielemans	Free kicks	35	0.7
McGinn	Corners L and R, 4 short	28	0.7
Tielemans	Corners L and R, 8 short	26	1.1

Share of set-play xG

Corners

54%

Throw-ins

27%

MCI Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Foden	Corners L and R, 5 short	91	3.1
Cherki	Corners L and R, 8 short	54	1.8
Silva	Corners L and R, 18 short	47	1.6
Reijnders

PROAVL set pieces PROMCI set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

54%

Throw-ins

22%

Aston VillaVilla
1-0
Manchester CityMan City
Cash 18'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers