Aston Villa vs Manchester Utd preview, 21 Dec 2025: xG form

21 Dec 16:30

M. Oliver

This match has been played.

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AVL favoured at home, but only just.

AVL38%Draw28%MUN34%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Villa1.5Man Utd1.4

A 0.1 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

AVL attack

LW0.12

CF0.29

RW0.18

CAM0.06

CDM0.29

CM0.18

LB0.12

CB0.24

RB0.00

PROAVL attack report PROMUN defence report

Drops right offCounter-presses

PROAVL shape report PROMUN shape report

MUN attack

LW0.59

CF0.71

RW0.24

CAM0.24

CDM0.29

CM0.18

LB0.18

CB0.12

RB0.18

Last 6, goals vs xG

AVL13 scored from 10.9 xG+2.1

MUN12 scored from 11.4 xG+0.6

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Patient build-upMixed build-up

Very low intensityMiddling intensity

Very centralCentral play

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

AVL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Cash	Corners L and R, 4 short	44	1.6
Cash	Throw-ins	41	0.2
Digne	Corners L and R, 9 short	40	2.4
Tielemans	Free kicks	35	0.7
McGinn	Corners L and R, 4 short	28	0.7
Tielemans	Corners L and R, 8 short	26	1.1

Share of set-play xG

Corners

54%

Throw-ins

27%

MUN Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Fernandes	Corners L and R, 8 short	90	4.4
Fernandes	Free kicks	70	2.3
Mbeumo	Corners R, 5 short	49	2.4
Dalot

PROAVL set pieces PROMUN set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

45%

Throw-ins

21%

Aston VillaVilla
2-1
Manchester UtdMan Utd
Rogers 44'
Rogers 56'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers