Aston Villa vs Newcastle Utd preview, 16 Aug 2025: xG form

16 Aug 11:30

C. Pawson

This match has been played.

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AVL favoured at home, but only just.

AVL47%Draw27%NEW26%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Villa1.7Newcastle1.2

A 0.5 xG edge, roughly a one-in-two win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

AVL attack

LW0.12

CF0.29

RW0.18

CAM0.06

CDM0.29

CM0.18

LB0.12

CB0.24

RB0.00

PROAVL attack report PRONEW defence report

Very lightFairly physical

PROAVL shape report PRONEW shape report

NEW attack

LW0.18

CF0.53

RW0.12

CAM0.18

CDM0.24

CM0.12

LB0.06

CB0.29

RB0.00

Last 6, goals vs xG

AVL13 scored from 10.9 xG+2.1

NEW8 scored from 9.5 xG-1.5

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Very centralVery wide

Very low intensityHigh intensity

Drops right offMixed response

CautiousMeasured risk

Patient build-upPossession-based

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

AVL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Cash	Corners L and R, 4 short	44	1.6
Cash	Throw-ins	41	0.2
Digne	Corners L and R, 9 short	40	2.4
Tielemans	Free kicks	35	0.7
McGinn	Corners L and R, 4 short	28	0.7
Tielemans	Corners L and R, 8 short	26	1.1

Share of set-play xG

Corners

54%

Throw-ins

27%

NEW Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Tonali	Corners L and R, 4 short	49	1.5
Trippier	Corners L and R, 5 short	47	1.2
Guimarães	Corners L and R, 4 short	43	3.4
Gordon

PROAVL set pieces PRONEW set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

44%

Free kicks

21%

Aston VillaVilla
0-0
Newcastle UtdNewcastle

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers