Bournemouth vs Fulham preview, 3 Oct 2025: xG form

03 Oct 19:00

S. Hooper

This match has been played.

See full analysis

BOU favoured at home, but only just.

BOU48%Draw27%FUL26%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Bournemouth1.7Fulham1.2

A 0.5 xG edge, roughly a one-in-two win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

BOU attack

LW0.24

CF0.76

RW0.41

CAM0.18

CDM0.18

CM0.35

LB0.18

CB0.12

RB0.24

PROBOU attack report PROFUL defence report

Drops right offHeavy counter-press

PROBOU shape report PROFUL shape report

FUL attack

LW0.31

CF0.25

RW0.38

CAM0.44

CDM0.31

CM0.31

LB0.06

CB0.19

RB0.06

Last 6, goals vs xG

BOU10 scored from 10.3 xG-0.3

FUL4 scored from 7.8 xG-3.8

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Very low intensityVery high intensity

Deep blockPresses higher

Possession-basedVery direct

Central playWide play

Middling physicalityMiddling physicality

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

BOU Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Hill	Throw-ins	64	0.7
Tavernier	Corners L and R, 18 short	62	2.1
Scott	Corners L and R, 2 short	56	1.4
Semenyo	Penalties	2	1.5
Tavernier	Penalties	2	1.5
Kroupi	Penalties	2	1.5

Share of set-play xG

Corners

32%

Throw-ins

32%

FUL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Wilson	Corners L and R, 14 short	68	3.5
Lukić	Corners L and R, 9 short	53	1.7
Iwobi	Corners L and R, 5 short	42	2.3
Wilson

PROBOU set pieces PROFUL set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

45%

Throw-ins

25%

BournemouthBournemouth
3-1
FulhamFulham
Semenyo 77'
Kluivert 83'
Semenyo

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers