Brentford vs Aston Villa preview, 23 Aug 2025: xG form

23 Aug 14:00

T. Harrington

This match has been played.

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BRE favoured at home, but only just.

BRE40%Draw29%AVL32%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Brentford1.5Villa1.3

A 0.2 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

BRE attack

LW0.24

CF0.76

RW0.41

CAM0.24

CDM0.29

CM0.06

LB0.06

CB0.00

RB0.06

PROBRE attack report PROAVL defence report

Very lightPhysically dominant

PROBRE shape report PROAVL shape report

AVL attack

LW0.12

CF0.29

RW0.18

CAM0.06

CDM0.29

CM0.18

LB0.12

CB0.24

RB0.00

Last 6, goals vs xG

BRE7 scored from 9.2 xG-2.2

AVL13 scored from 10.9 xG+2.1

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Drops right offHeavy counter-press

Patient build-upVery direct

Very low intensityMiddling intensity

Very centralEven width

Middling controlTechnical

Sits deeperMid-block

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

BRE Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Kayode	Throw-ins	170	3.3
Jensen	Corners L and R, 4 short	65	3.0
Damsgaard	Corners L and R, 6 short	44	2.6
Janelt	Corners R, 2 short	37	1.7
Thiago	Penalties	9	6.8
Schade	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

32%

Throw-ins

28%

AVL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Cash	Corners L and R, 4 short	44	1.6
Cash	Throw-ins	41	0.2
Digne	Corners L and R, 9 short	40	2.4
Tielemans

PROBRE set pieces PROAVL set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

54%

Throw-ins

27%

BrentfordBrentford
1-0
Aston VillaVilla
Ouattara 12'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers