Brentford vs Sunderland preview, 7 Jan 2026: xG form

07 Jan 19:30

M. Donohue

This match has been played.

See full analysis

BRE favoured at home, but only just.

BRE49%Draw28%SUN23%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Brentford1.6Sunderland1.0

A 0.6 xG edge, roughly a one-in-two win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

BRE attack

LW0.24

CF0.76

RW0.41

CAM0.24

CDM0.29

CM0.06

LB0.06

CB0.00

RB0.06

PROBRE attack report PROSUN defence report

LightPhysically dominant

PROBRE shape report PROSUN shape report

SUN attack

LW0.35

CF0.29

RW0.29

CAM0.00

CDM0.12

CM0.24

LB0.00

CB0.12

RB0.06

Last 6, goals vs xG

BRE7 scored from 9.2 xG-2.2

SUN9 scored from 6.1 xG+2.9

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Sits offHeavy counter-press

Sits deeperPresses higher

Takes risksVery bold

ScrappyMiddling control

Fairly directVery direct

Even widthEven width

Middling intensityMiddling intensity

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

BRE Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Kayode	Throw-ins	170	3.3
Jensen	Corners L and R, 4 short	65	3.0
Damsgaard	Corners L and R, 6 short	44	2.6
Janelt	Corners R, 2 short	37	1.7
Thiago	Penalties	9	6.8
Schade	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

32%

Throw-ins

28%

SUN Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Mukiele	Throw-ins	112	1.8
Xhaka	Free kicks	80	2.2
Xhaka	Corners R, 9 short	61	1.9
Fée

PROBRE set pieces PROSUN set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Throw-ins

32%

Corners

31%

BrentfordBrentford
3-0
SunderlandSunderland
Thiago 29'
Thiago 64'
Yarmoliuk

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers