Brighton vs Aston Villa preview, 3 Dec 2025: xG form

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Watkins 36'
Watkins 51'
Onana 59'
Malen 77'

Premier League 2025/2026

GW14

03 Dec 19:30

A. Madley

This match has been played.

See full analysis

BRI favoured at home, but only just.

BHA40%Draw29%AVL31%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Brighton1.4Villa1.2

A 0.2 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

BRI attack

LW0.12

CF0.71

RW0.18

CAM0.24

CDM0.06

CM0.24

LB0.12

CB0.06

RB0.06

PROBRI attack report PROAVL defence report

Very low intensityVery high intensity

PROBRI shape report PROAVL shape report

AVL attack

LW0.12

CF0.29

RW0.18

CAM0.06

CDM0.29

CM0.18

LB0.12

CB0.24

RB0.00

Last 6, goals vs xG

BHA9 scored from 11.2 xG-2.2

AVL13 scored from 10.9 xG+2.1

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Drops right offCounter-presses

Very lightFairly physical

Mid-blockVery high line

Very centralEven width

Patient build-upPossession-based

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

BRI Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Groß	Corners L and R, 4 short	57	1.6
Cuyper	Corners R, 1 short	35	3.4
Minteh	Corners L and R, 7 short	31	0.6
Welbeck	Penalties	3	2.3
O'Riley	Penalties	1	0.8
Milner	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

47%

Penalties

21%

AVL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Cash	Corners L and R, 4 short	44	1.6
Cash	Throw-ins	41	0.2
Digne	Corners L and R, 9 short	40	2.4
Tielemans

PROBRI set pieces PROAVL set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

54%

Throw-ins

27%

BrightonBrighton
3-4
Aston VillaVilla
van Hecke 8'
Torres (OG) 28'
van Hecke

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers