Brighton vs Fulham preview, 16 Aug 2025: xG form

16 Aug 14:00

S. Barrott

This match has been played.

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BRI favoured at home, but only just.

BHA44%Draw29%FUL27%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Brighton1.5Fulham1.1

A 0.4 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

BRI attack

LW0.12

CF0.71

RW0.18

CAM0.24

CDM0.06

CM0.24

LB0.12

CB0.06

RB0.06

PROBRI attack report PROFUL defence report

Very low intensityVery high intensity

PROBRI shape report PROFUL shape report

FUL attack

LW0.31

CF0.25

RW0.38

CAM0.44

CDM0.31

CM0.31

LB0.06

CB0.19

RB0.06

Last 6, goals vs xG

BHA9 scored from 11.2 xG-2.2

FUL4 scored from 7.8 xG-3.8

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Deep blockVery high line

Drops right offCounter-presses

Central playEven width

Middling physicalityFairly physical

Possession-basedPossession-based

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

BRI Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Groß	Corners L and R, 4 short	57	1.6
Cuyper	Corners R, 1 short	35	3.4
Minteh	Corners L and R, 7 short	31	0.6
Welbeck	Penalties	3	2.3
O'Riley	Penalties	1	0.8
Milner	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

47%

Penalties

21%

FUL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Wilson	Corners L and R, 14 short	68	3.5
Lukić	Corners L and R, 9 short	53	1.7
Iwobi	Corners L and R, 5 short	42	2.3
Wilson

PROBRI set pieces PROFUL set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

45%

Throw-ins

25%

BrightonBrighton
1-1
FulhamFulham
O'Riley (P) 54'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers