Brighton vs Newcastle Utd preview, 18 Oct 2025: xG form

18 Oct 14:00

C. Pawson

This match has been played.

See full analysis

BRI favoured at home, but only just.

BHA44%Draw28%NEW28%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Brighton1.6Newcastle1.2

A 0.3 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

BRI attack

LW0.12

CF0.71

RW0.18

CAM0.24

CDM0.06

CM0.24

LB0.12

CB0.06

RB0.06

PROBRI attack report PRONEW defence report

Even widthVery wide

PROBRI shape report PRONEW shape report

NEW attack

LW0.18

CF0.53

RW0.12

CAM0.18

CDM0.24

CM0.12

LB0.06

CB0.29

RB0.00

Last 6, goals vs xG

BHA9 scored from 11.2 xG-2.2

NEW8 scored from 9.5 xG-1.5

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Mid-blockVery high line

Mixed responseCounter-presses

High intensityVery high intensity

Fairly physicalFairly physical

CautiousMeasured risk

Possession-basedPossession-based

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

BRI Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Groß	Corners L and R, 4 short	57	1.6
Cuyper	Corners R, 1 short	35	3.4
Minteh	Corners L and R, 7 short	31	0.6
Welbeck	Penalties	3	2.3
O'Riley	Penalties	1	0.8
Milner	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

47%

Penalties

21%

NEW Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Tonali	Corners L and R, 4 short	49	1.5
Trippier	Corners L and R, 5 short	47	1.2
Guimarães	Corners L and R, 4 short	43	3.4
Gordon

PROBRI set pieces PRONEW set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

44%

Free kicks

21%

BrightonBrighton
2-1
Newcastle UtdNewcastle
Welbeck 40'
Welbeck 83'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers