Brighton vs Nottingham Forest preview, 1 Mar 2026: xG form

01 Mar 14:00

A. Madley

This match has been played.

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BRI favoured at home, but only just.

BHA44%Draw29%NFO27%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Brighton1.5Forest1.1

A 0.4 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

BRI attack

LW0.12

CF0.71

RW0.18

CAM0.24

CDM0.06

CM0.24

LB0.12

CB0.06

RB0.06

PROBRI attack report PRONFO defence report

Sits deeperVery high line

PROBRI shape report PRONFO shape report

NFO attack

LW0.31

CF0.50

RW0.38

CAM0.13

CDM0.25

CM0.19

LB0.06

CB0.13

RB0.19

Last 6, goals vs xG

BHA9 scored from 11.2 xG-2.2

NFO16 scored from 9.7 xG+6.3

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Low intensityVery high intensity

Possession-basedFairly direct

Mixed responseCounter-presses

Middling controlTechnical

Middling physicalityFairly physical

CautiousMeasured risk

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

BRI Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Groß	Corners L and R, 4 short	57	1.6
Cuyper	Corners R, 1 short	35	3.4
Minteh	Corners L and R, 7 short	31	0.6
Welbeck	Penalties	3	2.3
O'Riley	Penalties	1	0.8
Milner	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

47%

Penalties

21%

NFO Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Anderson	Corners L and R, 12 short	88	2.8
Anderson	Free kicks	57	0.6
Hutchinson	Corners R, 11 short	46	1.3
Anderson

PROBRI set pieces PRONFO set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

42%

Throw-ins

32%

BrightonBrighton
2-1
Nottingham ForestForest
Gómez 5'
Welbeck 14'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers