Brighton vs Sunderland preview, 20 Dec 2025: xG form

20 Dec 15:00

D. England

This match has been played.

See full analysis

BRI favoured at home, but only just.

BHA49%Draw29%SUN22%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Brighton1.5Sunderland1.0

A 0.6 xG edge, roughly a one-in-two win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

BRI attack

LW0.12

CF0.71

RW0.18

CAM0.24

CDM0.06

CM0.24

LB0.12

CB0.06

RB0.06

PROBRI attack report PROSUN defence report

CautiousVery bold

PROBRI shape report PROSUN shape report

SUN attack

LW0.35

CF0.29

RW0.29

CAM0.00

CDM0.12

CM0.24

LB0.00

CB0.12

RB0.06

Last 6, goals vs xG

BHA9 scored from 11.2 xG-2.2

SUN9 scored from 6.1 xG+2.9

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Middling intensityVery high intensity

Sits offCounter-presses

LightFairly physical

Possession-basedFairly direct

Presses higherVery high line

Even widthEven width

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

BRI Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Groß	Corners L and R, 4 short	57	1.6
Cuyper	Corners R, 1 short	35	3.4
Minteh	Corners L and R, 7 short	31	0.6
Welbeck	Penalties	3	2.3
O'Riley	Penalties	1	0.8
Milner	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

47%

Penalties

21%

SUN Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Mukiele	Throw-ins	112	1.8
Xhaka	Free kicks	80	2.2
Xhaka	Corners R, 9 short	61	1.9
Fée

PROBRI set pieces PROSUN set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Throw-ins

32%

Corners

31%

BrightonBrighton
0-0
SunderlandSunderland

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers